Ryan Wohl breaks down his best bet for Manel Kape vs. Kyoji Horiguchi, which is the Main Event of tonight’s UFC Fight Night.
Following the UFC’s Freedom 250 card at the White House, the promotion is back at its home base, the Meta Apex. This week’s UFC Fight Night is headlined by a phenomenal main event between No. 2 Manel Kape vs. No. 5 Kyoji Horiguchi. These fighters have fought each other before, as they first faced off at Rizin FF: Rizin World Grand Prix 2017 Final Round in December 2017. Horiguchi scored a third-round submission against Kape in that contest.
Check out my best bet for Manel Kape vs. Kyoji Horiguchi at tonight’s UFC Fight Night.
Horiguchi competed in the UFC from 2013 to 2016 and went 7-1 in the promotion, with his lone loss coming to former Flyweight Champion Demetrious Johnson. Then Horiguchi left the promotion and went on to fight in Rizin and Bellator, where he became a champion in both companies. Horiguchi is on an eight-fight unbeaten streak, having not lost since April 2021. In November 2025, Horiguchi made his UFC return, submitted Tagir Ulanbekov, and followed it up with a unanimous decision victory against Amir Albazi.
Since losing to Muhammad Mokaev at UFC 304 in July 2024, Manel Kape has shown a new level of aggression, knocking out his last three opponents. Kape has always been a skilled striker, but consistency and volume have been problems in the past. But not anymore. Kape appears to be one of the most powerful strikers we’ve ever seen at 125 pounds.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Kape is a -155 favorite while Horiguchi is the underdog at +130. This fight has an over/under of 4.5 rounds, with the over being -125 and the under being -105. I believe Horiguchi’s defense and quickness will present problems for Kape in this contest. If Horiguchi is able to land and move around the Octagon while mixing in takedown attempts, he should be able to find success.
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