Zach Thompson shares his three favorite MLB no run first inning (NRFI) prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for Monday’s slate.
Baseball is faster than ever with the implementation of the pitch clock, but DraftKings Sportsbook also has a market for those who still can’t wait 2.5 hours for results. NRFI bets (No Run First Inning) are exactly what they sound like. They give the bettor the ability to wager specifically on the outcome of a game’s opening frame. Will either team score a run? Yes or no? It’s that simple. Here are my top 3 NRFI plays for Monday:
Let’s break down those three options in more detail and see why the numbers support those three NRFI plays for Monday.
Let’s start in Cincinnati, where the Reds welcome the Mets. Even though Great American Ball Park is hitter-friendly, the weather forecast is neutral and not extremely warm. As a result, the two strong young arms on the mound should have a good shot at delivering a scoreless first frame.
Chase Burns goes for the home team, and he has not allowed a run in 18 of his 21 starts in his career and 12 of his 13 outings this season. In his 13 games, he is 7-1 with a 2.14 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. Burns has given up two runs or fewer in 10 straight starts, going 6-0 with a 0.91 WHIP. He faced the Mets three starts ago and earned a win by working 5 1/3 innings and picking up eight strikeouts. He had a scoreless first inning in that start as well.
For the Mets, Meyers will be making his third start of the season. He’s been working mostly out of the bullpen for his 20 games and gave up a run in his first inning of work in each of his last two appearances, including one against the Reds. However, in his two starts, he has not allowed a run in the first inning. In his career, he has not allowed a first-inning run in 23 of his 33 starts, landing right around league average.
From a team perspective, both the Reds and Mets are slightly above league average on the season, landing right around a 50% hit rate. Burns seems like the safe play, and Meyers has a strong enough chance to get through the first as well to make this a solid value.
The Friars are heading to St. Louis for the first series of the week. Lucas Giolito is expected to start for San Diego, although he hasn’t been confirmed as of Monday morning. On the other side, Dustin May will start for the Cardinals as he looks to continue his solid momenum.
Giolito has made five starts for the Padres, going 2-1 with a 4.35 ERA and 1.74 WHIP this season, but he has typically started strongly before struggling later in his game. Giolito has allowed a first-inning run in only one of his five starts and has a two-game streak of NRFI coming into Monday night’s matchup.
May has a three-game NRFI streak coming into this contest and has turned things around after a slow start. He has only allowed four earned runs in 18 2/3 innings over those three starts against the Brewers, Rangers and Mets.
The Padres’ offense has been streaky this season, but however they’ve been rolling, they’ve been great for NRFI. The Padres have converted 45 of their 69 games to NRFI hits for a league-leading 65.2% NRFI rate. The Cardinals are sixth-best in the league with a 54.4% NRFI rate, making this a top spot for NRFI picks on Monday.
This should be a fun interleague series to start the week with some intriguing options on both sides. In the first game, the D-backs send Ryne Nelson to the mound against 22-year-old prospect Walbert Urena. Both pitchers have flashed dominant stuff at time but have also been prone to giving up long balls.
Walbert Urena and Ryne Nelson have good raw stuff, but have had inconsistent results overall this season. Even when they’ve struggled, though, it’s usually not at the beginning of the game.
Nelson comes in riding a nine-game NRFI streak, the longest of all probable starters on Monday. He has begun 12 of his 14 starts with a scoreless first inning and has an 80.4% NRFI rate in his 92 career starts.
Urena has a shorter track record, but has a 90% NRFI rate in his career, the highest on the slate. He has not allowed a run in the first inning of nine of his 10 starts, with an impressive 35.3% K% in the first and just 0.3 hits per inning in his 10 first innings.
I’m surprised the odds for this matchup are nearly even-money and love adding it in to sweeten the NRFI parlay for Monday or playing it as a stand-alone quick-hitter late in the evening.
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