After sweeping the Houston Astros between April 6 and April 8, the Colorado Rockies improved to 6-6, the latest in the season they were at .500 or better since 2022. It looked like a sign of progress for a Rockies team that has been among the MLB’s worst for years, losing at least 100 games in each of the last three seasons.

But the Astros have gotten their get-back; they’ve taken each of the last two games against Colorado in a return series to snap an eight-game losing streak of their own, and the Rockies have now lost six straight games. They’ll be looking to salvage one win from their seven-game road trip at 8:10 p.m. ET.

Juan Mejia will take the mound for Colorado as an opener, and Ryan Weiss will open for Houston.

Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Colorado Rockies at Houston Astros prediction, preview

Both of the games in this series have been pretty competitive, as the Astros have won them by a combined three runs. Both teams had been in need of tight games; across its eight-game losing streak, all but one of Houston’s defeats was decided by multiple runs, and each of the Rockies’ losses to the San Diego Padres came by at least three. The results are arguably discouraging for both teams; the Astros, who choked away a division lead last season to narrowly miss the playoffs, would surely like to beat Colorado more convincingly, while the Rockies need a win to stop their skid.

The teams’ seasons have been undergirded by very different underlying stories. So far, the investments Colorado made in its pitching staff have paid off, as it ranks 15th in ERA so far, but its offense is still flagging. Meanwhile, Houston has the league’s worst pitching staff and its second-best offense so far, but given that it had one of the league’s best rotations last season, that seems bound for correction at some point.

A bullpen game might do the Rockies some good. Though they finished with the league’s second-worst bullpen last season, they rank ninth in reliever ERA so far. Mejia has been a part of that, pitching a scoreless inning in five of his seven starts, though his ERA is inflated because of a one-out, three-run disaster against the Padres last Friday. As long as Mejia can hold the Astros to a scoreless first inning on one day’s rest, Jaden Hill, Brennan Bernardino, Jimmy Herget, and Antonio Senzatela — all of whom have an ERA of 2.00 or better — could keep the game competitive. Collectively, Colorado’s pitching staff has allowed plenty of hard contact, but despite its impressive numbers, Houston actually has a below-average hard-hit rate and average exit velocity. The Rockies’ pitchers tend to pepper the zone, which might help neutralize the Astros’ tendency to walk.

Weiss, meanwhile, has been among the primary culprits amidst Houston’s pitching struggles. This season, the 29-year-old rookie has appeared in five games as a reliever, totaling 11.0 innings and giving up nine earned runs while walking six and striking out 15. But there are better bullpen options behind him: Bryan King, Kai-Wei Teng, and Enyel De Los Santos have all posted sub-3 ERAs so far, and King and Teng didn’t pitch last night. King’s form is probably sustainable, given that he was among the Astros’ most reliable relief options last season, and Teng could provide some length as a converted starter. The biggest issue with Houston’s pitching staff is that it has given up a lot of walks, and Colorado walks pretty infrequently. The Astros have also gotten pretty unlucky. As long as they can withstand Weiss’s innings, they should be in good shape to pull out a win.

Colorado Rockies at Houston Astros pick, best bet

Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-108)

I can’t believe I’m taking the under on the Rockies’ bullpen game, but their best reliever, Bernardino, is a new arrival, and Antonio Senzatela’s move to the bullpen has paid off so far for both him and the team. Plus, I trust basically every Houston reliever likely to be available today, with the exception of Weiss.

Strong Lean: Yordan Álvarez 2+ Total Bases (-114)

Though I generally trust Colorado’s bullpen more than I have in years past, no pitcher is capable of slowing down Álvarez, who’s had two or more total bases in 10 of his 19 games and leads all of baseball in OBP, slugging percentage, OPS, OPS+, rOBA, Rbat+, intentional walks, and games played and the American League in homers, walks, and total bases.