There’s a fun showdown out in the NL East tonight in the nation’s capital. The Washington Nationals and Philadelphia Phillies are separated by just 1.5 games in the division standings. At 6:45 p.m. ET, they’ll go head-to-head for the second leg of this series. Last night’s ended with a 4-1 win for the Nats behind a gem from starter Foster Griffin once the rain let up. What will we see this evening in D.C.?

Here’s a betting prediction and pick for this Phillies vs. Nationals matchup courtesy of MLB odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Phillies vs. Nationals prediction, preview

Philadelphia Phillies

By now, you likely know how the Phillies turned their season around under manager Don Mattingly, who took over roughly a month into the 2026 campaign. After clawing their way out of a hole, they’re now 42-36, good for second in the NL East. While they’re not a high-scoring bunch with just 4.23 runs per game, they’ve also managed to get their run differential to -7 on the campaign. The bats are typically less than impressive with a .693 OPS that ranks 25th on the year, slashing .231/.298/.395 overall. However, the results against left-handers like they face tonight are worse, sitting at .221/.298/.374 for an OPS of .673. There is an encouraging sign, though — the Phils are at a .790 OPS over the last week and have produced over six runs per game in this span. A .163 ISO is quite good and the club has 100 homers on the year as well, but a 23.2% K% is eighth worst while a 7.8% BB% is sixth-to-last.

LHP Jesus Luzardo gets the start tonight with a 6-4 record in 15 appearances. He has a 4.20 ERA, a 1.31 WHIP and 97 strikeouts across 85.2 IP. By all means, he’s been very solid with above-average grades in most Sabermetrics, including in the 90th percentile or better in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate. The pitching staff has been much more solid than the bats overall this season, with the relievers 14th in ERA at 3.88 alongside a 1.29 WHIP and a stellar 17.8% K-BB% that leads the sport.

Washington Nationals

The Nats recently surpassed the 40-win mark and are now 41-38 on the year, sitting 1.5 games shy of the Phillies for second in the NL East. Washington has won six of its last 10 games as well and now has a run differential of +15, still producing an MLB-best 5.32 runs per game. The club boasts a .744 OPS that ranks fourth overall in the sport with a full slash line of .248/.321/.423. Tonight, they also see benefits of facing a lefty as they slash .275/.353/.447 for an .800 OPS in that split. That’s a huge boost for this matchup. The Nationals also have 103 home runs on the year with an overall ISO of .176 that ranks third in baseball. Now, that may suffer slightly against Luzardo given how he keeps exit velocity down. However, they can find other ways to score and bring an 8.6% BB% and 21.1% K% into tonight.

LHP PJ Poulin will be used as an opener this evening for Washington with a 3-0 record in nine starts and 29 games overall. He has a 3.07 ERA, a 1.43 WHIP and 19 strikeouts in 29.1 IP. Once he sits, it’s Zack Littell in line for a bulk role with a 5.45 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and just 41 strikeouts in 71.0 IP. The bullpen as a whole has a 4.70 ERA that ranks 24th, a 1.42 WHIP and a paltry 7.9% K-BB%.

Phillies vs. Nationals pick, best bet

DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Phillies as -173 favorites on the Moneyline tonight. The Nationals are +143 underdogs to win outright at home. The run total sits at 8.5 combined runs this evening.

Best Bet: Nationals +1.5 (-115)

For what it’s worth, these teams have met four times so far this season as the Nationals covered a +1.5 run line in all four, including two outright wins. Luzardo is the better arm in this game, especially in comparison to Littell, but it’s possible Poulin keeps things close in the first couple of innings since the Phillies have been so bad against lefties on the year. Beyond that, it’s hard to not look at the Nats’ splits against southpaws and believe they can see some success at the plate to begin with. The long balls may not come at the same rate since Luzardo is limiting hard hits, but he could have more of a floor outing than a ceiling performance since after all, Washington leads the MLB in OBP and OPS against lefties with a top-six ISO in the split as well. The Nats have everything they need to keep this game close, so long as they don’t go down too much on strikes.