Blake Krass gives his pick, preview and prediction for the Italian Open semifinal match between Casper Ruud and Luciano Darderi.
The 2026 Italian Open is the final big clay tournament ahead of the French Open.
There is an awesome semi-final match set between Casper Ruud and Luciano Darderi. The match begins at 9:30 a.m. ET on Friday, May 15.
We are finally starting to see flashes of the Casper Ruud of old. Ruud got ranked as high as No. 2 in the world in 2022. Since breaking into the top 20 back in May of 2021, Ruud had been a mainstay, going 257 consecutive weeks in the rankings. That is until the most recent ATP ranks came out on May 4, where Ruud was ranked 25th. Ruud was being propped up by his win in Madrid last year, which finally expired. However, Ruud is looking to push himself back into the top 20 with two strong performances in a row on his preferred surface. Ruud made the quarter-finals in Madrid, although he was disappointingly upset by Alexander Blockx in that match. He is now in the semi-finals in Rome and is hoping to make his fourth career Masters 1000 final.
Luciano Darderi just defeated Rafael Jodar in the battle of up-and-coming clay stars. While the Italian, Jannik Sinner, and the Spaniard, Carlos Alcaraz, have been battling for the top spot in the sport for years, the duo of the Italian, Darderi, and the Spaniard, Jodar, were battling for the title of next-up, at least when it comes to clay. The more experienced Darderi won that battle and is looking to make the first Masters 1000 final of his career. In fact, Darderi has never even made an ATP 500 final. He has made six ATP finals in his career, but all have been at 250 events. Darderi is playing the best tennis of his career and has a chance to take a massive step in his home nation.
My best bet for this match is for Luciano Darderi to cover the spread of +1.5 sets. It’s still hard to trust Casper Ruud, despite how well he has been playing. Unfortunately, Ruud’s career has been defined by not seizing the moment. He has played in seven prominent finals in his career, three Grand Slams, one ATP Finals and three Masters 1000. He lost the first six of those finals, before finally winning one in Madrid last year. While this isn’t a final, it’s still a massive chance for Ruud to prove that he is back to being one of the best clay players in the world. Ruud had that chance in Madrid a couple of weeks ago and disappointingly lost to Alexander Blockx. Until Ruud proves himself on the biggest stages, I’ll be leery.
While I don’t fully trust Casper Ruud, it’s also hard for me to bet Luciano Darderi on the moneyline. Darderi is coming off back-to-back physically and emotionally exhausting matches. He pulled off by far the biggest win of his career by defeating Alexander Zverev in a three-setter in the Round of 16. In the following match, he went three sets once again against Rafael Jodar in a blockbuster match. If this match goes the distance, Darderi could be seriously worn down by the time the third set comes around. However, Darderi should ride the momentum well enough to grab one of the first two sets and push it to a third. That is why this spread bet is my favorite pick for this match.
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