Sean Barnard previews Sunday’s WNBA matchup between the New York Liberty and the Los Angeles Sparks and provides his best pick.
In the final matchup of today’s three-game WNBA slate, the New York Liberty will take on the Los Angeles Sparks. This is the first matchup of the season between these two teams, who have each battled some early adversity and underperformance on the season.
Looking at the odds for tonight, the Liberty enter as 4.5-point favorites and hold -205 odds of winning outright on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Sparks hold +170 odds of pulling off the upset, with the game total set at 180.5 points.
Let’s get into a pick and prediction for this Liberty at Sparks matchup.
The New York Liberty enters with an 11-5 record on the season. They battled some early struggles, slipping to a 3-4 start, but ripped off an eight-game winning streak to put themselves in a better position in the standings. This winning streak was snapped in the previous game in an 86-83 loss to the Washington Mystics despite entering as 12.5-point favorites. On the season overall, the Liberty have gone 8-8 against the spread, and the game total has gone over in nine of the 16 games.
Breanna Stewart headlines the production, posting averages of 19.5 points and 8.9 rebounds. Jonquel Jones adds 13.9 points and 9.1 rebounds per game, while Marine Johannes, Pauline Astier, and Satau Sabally each also average in double figures. It has been a tough start to the season for Sabrina Ionescu, who has suited up for just four games this season and posted measly averages of 8.8 points, 3.5 assists, and 3.0 rebounds, well below her sky-high standard. New York enters with a clean injury report ahead of tonight’s matchup.
The Liberty are scoring 88.6 points per game, which ranks sixth in the WNBA. They also rank third in offensive rating, fourth in field goal percentage, and fourth in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 82.6 points per game against New York, which is the third-best rate in the WNBA. The Liberty also ranks fourth in defensive rating, fourth in opponents’ field goal percentage, and sixth in opponents’ three-point percentage.
The Los Angeles Sparks are off to a 7-8 start to the season. They are looking to bounce back from a pair of losses at the hands of the Golden State Valkyries and Minnesota Lynx. Los Angeles has lost five of their last eight matchups. On the season overall, the Sparks have gone 5-10 against the spread, and the game total has gone over in 10 of the 15 games played.
Kelsey Plum headlines the production for the Sparks, posting averages of 25.0 points, 6.4 assists and 2.1 rebounds per game. Nneka Ogwumike adds 15.2 points and 8.9 rebounds per game, while Dearica Hamby contributes 13.8 points and 8.1 rebounds. Rae Burrell is the lone other player to average in double figures, while Ariel Atkins and Erica Wheeler also play key roles. Cameron Brink will miss tonight’s matchup due to an ankle injury.
The Sparks are scoring 87.7 points per game, which ranks eighth in the league. Los Angeles also ranks ninth in offensive rating, sixth in field-goal percentage and 12th in three-point percentage. Defensively, the Sparks are conceding 90.9 points per matchup, which is the second-worst rate in the league. They also rank 12th in defensive rating, last in opponents’ field-goal percentage and fourth in opponents’ three-point percentage.
Both of these teams have battled some roster fit concerns in the early stages of the season and failed to look like how they were fully designed. The New York Liberty showed far more progress in getting back on their desired track during the eight-game winning streak. But the previous loss to the Washington Mystics was a concerning result in which they failed to ever separate themselves against an inferior opponent and paid the price because of it.
My lean is toward this being a bounce back spot for the Liberty and them covering the 4.5-point spread in a victory tonight. However, my best bet for this matchup is on New York’s team total, and I am backing them to score over 92.5 points tonight.
This is a Los Angeles defense with some major issues and no clear path to fixing them in the short-term. They rank 14th in opponents’ points per game, 12th in defensive rating, and 15th in opponents’ field goal percentage. There was a stretch this year in which they were producing the worst defensive rating in WNBA history, although they have shown some progress since. Los Angeles has allowed 102+ points in four games this season, and over 92.5 in seven games.
This will be a problem against this high-powered New York Liberty attack. They have cracked 100+ points in three games this year, tallied over 92.5 points in seven matchups, and are averaging 88.6 points per game overall. This is all while the team has not yet reached its top gear offensively. Sabrina Ionescu has especially left production to be desired as she has battled injuries in the early stages of this season. Los Angeles also struggles on the glass, and this is an area that New York should be expected to dominate tonight. The Sparks rank 13th in rebounds per game and 11th in opponents’ rebounds allowed, while the Liberty rank fourth in each category.
Expect Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones to attack the glass with ferocity, and for this to create some easy pathways to plenty of easy scoring opportunities on the offensive glass. The Liberty have continued to be a dangerous scoring offense even without reaching their peak just yet, and the Sparks will provide some of the least resistance of any defense in the WNBA. Count on the 92.5 team total line to be too low and for the Liberty to be prepared to make a statement following their disappointing result in the previous game.
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