The fourth fight at tonight’s UFC Fight Night is between Jafel Filho vs. Cody Durden in a three-round Flyweight contest. Durden, the 15-fight UFC veteran, has suffered four consecutive defeats, with his last win coming against Matt Schnell in September 2024. Meanwhile, Filho is coming off a first-round submission over Clayton Carpenter and is 3-1 in his previous four contests.

Check out my best bet for Jafel Filho vs. Cody Durden at tonight’s UFC Fight Night.

Jafel Filho Round 1 (+145)

Both fighters in this contest are 5’7″, while Filho has a one-inch advantage in standing reach (68″ vs. 67″). When looking at the statistics, Durden has the edge. That is because Durden averages more significant strikes per minute and lands more takedowns per 15 minutes. Durden has a 17-10-1 record with 12 finishes in his MMA career. He last lost by unanimous decision to Nyamjargal Tumendemberel at UFC 326 in May. In Durden’s previous seven fights, he is 1-6.

Filho is a massive -600 favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook while Durden is a +440 underdog in this matchup. The over/under is set at 1.5 rounds, with the under being -125 and the over being -105.

All of Filho’s last three victories have come in the first round. Also, six of Filho’s previous eight wins have been in the first round. Filho’s aggressive nature and pace will likely be too much for Durden to keep up with. 16 of Filho’s 17 MMA wins have come by submission or knockout. He can finish opponents on the feet or on the ground, making him a tough matchup to game-plan against.