Charlie Cummings gives his best bet and prediction for the Ecuador vs. Germany World Cup match on Thursday, June 25.
Best Bet: Germany Moneyline (-110)
Motivation doesn’t always overcome talent. Even if Julian Nagelsmann empties his entire bench, Germany will field a superior starting XI, and their individual players won’t roll over and hand the match to Ecuador. It may be a closer affair than expected, but Die Mannschaft will prove the winner.
This is perhaps the biggest gap in urgency you’ll see in the entire tournament. Germany’s spot at the top of Group E is secure, while Ecuador desperately needs a win to advance into the Round of 32. Will motivation overcome talent in this group stage match? Let’s break down the two sides, then get into a prediction for this match.
One thing you can say about Ecuador, their defense has held up to the task. They came into this World Cup on an impressive defensive run, and the group stage has been no different. It took a full 90 minutes for the Ivory Coast to break their back line in their first match, and they kept a needed clean sheet against Curacao in their last game. Most of the time, one goal allowed in 180+ minutes means you’re through to the knockout stages.
Unfortunately, their attack hasn’t traveled with them. Against the Ivory Coast, they managed a single shot on target, generating 1.01 xG. They piled up 15 shots on target against Curacao, and all 15 were turned aside. It was a great performance by Curacao’s goalkeeper, but frankly, Ecuador should have been able to find the one goal needed to win.
A lot of players need to improve, even though they’re likely to be playing against Germany’s backups. It starts with Enner Valencia, who missed several clean chances against Curacao. Gonzalo Plata, John Yeboah, and Pervis Estupinán all must do better with their opportunities. I’m also looking at Moises Caicedo, who hasn’t stepped up offensively the way you’d expect him to in a major tournament. At least the stakes are clear: you’re not moving on unless you can find some goals, so go find them.
It’s impressive that Germany has found two distinct and important ways to get all three points. In their opener against Curacao, they weathered a surprise equalizer to go into half up 3-1, and polished off a 7-1 win with a dominant second half. Facing the Ivory Coast, they went into halftime down 1-0, and were in line to lose the top spot in the group. But they made the right tactical changes, pressed the right substitute buttons, and ended up with a 2-1 win off a stoppage-time winner. Winning convincingly as favorites before needing a clutch comeback in a tight contest leaves them prepared for anything.
Germany can’t change their standing in the Round of 32 with a decision. As the confirmed group winners, they’re going to face a third-place team regardless of the result on Thursday, so they might as well empty the bench here.
Julian Nagelsmann’s lineup bears watching. Most, if not all, of their regular starters will be on the bench. Some may come on late if a tune-up is needed, but any chance to get rest in the busy football calendar is needed. Angelo Stiller, Malick Thiaw, Assan Ouédraogo, Max Beier, and Nick Woltemade are some of the younger players on the roster who should be in line for a start. Manuel Neuer also figures to get a rest for this contest.
Handicapping this game is awfully difficult due to Germany’s status as group winner. Their backups are still more talented than Ecuador’s starters, but they have less experience playing together and far less to play for. How much will that hold sway over this match?
Prediction: The talent gap is impossible for me to ignore. On top of that, Germany’s reserves will be playing hard, not only to justify their selection for future tournaments but to creep into the picture for the knockout stages. At close to even value, I’ll take the superior side to pull in all three points.
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