I’m not sure you can have “must-win” games in May, but if you can, the Jays just survived two of them in the Bronx. Toronto won the final two contests of a four-game set with the Yankees, bringing the reigning AL Champions’ record to 23-27 for the season.

Now, the Jays will return home to take on a young and fun Pirates squad that is looking to make the playoffs for the first time in over a decade.

Can Toronto continue the climb back to .500? Or will Pittsburgh start off this road series with a bang? Let’s preview this interleague battle and make a couple picks on the DraftKings Sportsbook.

Pirates vs. Blue Jays prediction, preview

It’s been an interesting start to the season for Kevin Gausman, even if you wouldn’t know it by a quick glance at his overall stats. In 10 outings and 57.1 innings, Gausman has pitched to a 3.45 ERA and a 3.08 FIP. Pretty good! Even considering his 69.8% strand rate is the lowest mark he’s had in a season since his disastrous 2019 campaign. Still, the oddity comes in the form of the veteran right-hander’s strikeout numbers. Gausman’s 22.9% strikeout rate is about league-average. However, much of that figure is being propped up by Gausman striking out 21 opponents in his first two starts of 2026. Since then, the 35-year-old owns just a 16.8% strikeout rate, which is incredibly underwhelming for a pitcher equipped with a splitter as historically nasty as Gausman’s. The former fourth-overall pick has remained effective, even tossing six shutout innings in Detroit his last time out, but if Gausman isn’t able to consistently retire hitters on strikes, his results are going to fluctuate wildly start-to-start.

These aren’t your older brother’s Pirates, either. They can hit a little bit — especially when going up against a right-handed opponent. To wit, Pittsburgh owns a .337 wOBA versus RHPs in 2026, which trails only the Braves and Dodgers for the best mark in MLB. The club is certainly missing righty-masher Ryan O’Hearn (quad), who owns a 148 wRC+ within the split in his first season with the Pirates; but Brandon Lowe, Oneil Cruz and former Blue Jay Spencer Horwitz all represent dangerous left-handed bats in the middle of Pittsburgh’s order.

The Pirates might need those bats to step up in a big way on Friday if they hope to claim an interleague and international win in Canada. While so much has gone right for the organization in 2026, top prospect Bubba Chandler has struggled. Don’t get me wrong. The 23-year-old old still passes the ol’ eye test with 96th percentile fastball velocity (98.6), it’s just that the RHP seemingly has now idea where the ball is going. Chandler’s walking a massive 16.4% of opposing hitters through nine outings — easily the highest mark in the league among pitchers who have thrown at least 40 innings. That flaw has translated into a 5.14 ERA, and things could certainly be uglier if not for a microscopic .228 opponent BABIP. With all that said, the Jays might be a perfect matchup for Chandler. Not only does Toronto possess an 80 wRC+ over the past two weeks, but for the season as a whole, it sports the AL’s highest chase rate (37.0%). Can the Jays wait out Chandler’s control issues?

Pirates vs. Blue Jays pick, best bet

Best Bet: Kevin Gausman Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-146)

Gausman hasn’t registered more than five strikeouts in a start in his last eight appearances. It’s a span of time where his strikeout rate is a mere 16.8%. I’m truly shocked this prop line is so high, even with the Pirates ranking top 10 in strikeout rate (23.2%).

Strong Lean: Over 8 (-110)

Trusting the Jays to score runs at the moment is worrisome, but it helps when your opponent, Bubba Chandler, leads MLB in walk rate (16.4%). Meanwhile, the Pirates own MLB’s third-highest wOBA against RHPs (.337). I think they can at least register a couple runs off Gausman on Friday.