Houston comes into Minnesota at 19-29, 7-15 on the road and still trying to keep an injury-thinned lineup from sinking a rotation that has already burned through too many emergency plans. The Twins are only 21-26 themselves, with a 13-13 home record that keeps the market honest, but this matchup gives them the cleaner offensive lane. Tatsuya Imai has not stabilized, Kendry Rojas is more opener/bulk question than true starter, and the game sits in a weather pocket that adds volatility without creating a clean carry thesis. The full-game total at 9.5 is live, but the sharper read starts with which offense has the clearer path to five runs.
Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the Minnesota Twins and the Houston Astros.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

Twins vs. Astros prediction, preview

Imai is the obvious pressure point. His 2026 Statcast profile has a 9.24 ERA, 6.83 xERA, .394 wOBA allowed, .399 xwOBA, .248 xBA, .431 xSLG, 90.2 mph average exit velocity, 53.1% hard-hit rate, 9.4% barrel rate and a 21.5% walk rate. That is the kind of profile that breaks in multiple directions: free bases, hitter’s counts, elevated pitch counts and then enough hard contact to turn traffic into a crooked inning. The pitch mix does not clean it up. His four-seamer has allowed a .393 wOBA and 50.0% hard-hit rate, his slider has been hit for a .536 SLG and .434 wOBA, and the sinker carries a .633 xSLG, .472 xwOBA and 62.5% hard-hit rate in the early pitch-level sample. He returned from arm fatigue last week and allowed six runs in four innings to Seattle, with Houston’s own coverage noting that he had narrowed the arsenal mostly to fastballs and sliders while the club was still trying to get him right.

Rojas keeps the full-game over in play, though he is the reason the bet shape needs discipline. The surface ERA is 2.46, but the expected file is much shakier: 5.47 xERA, .400 wOBA allowed, .365 xwOBA, 88.4 mph average exit velocity, 44.4% hard-hit rate and 16.7% barrel rate. His four-seamer has a .533 wOBA allowed and .445 xwOBA in a tiny pitch sample, and RotoWire’s broader handicap notes that Rojas has not thrown more than 60 pitches in any of his three appearances, which means Minnesota’s bullpen is likely part of Houston’s scoring path. That matters for the total, but it also creates a cleaner distinction: Rojas volatility makes the over tempting, while Imai plus Houston’s bullpen gives Minnesota the more focused full-game scoring lane.

Minnesota’s lineup has enough present shape to punish Imai’s particular flaws. The Twins have scored 41 runs over their last 10 games, with a .244/.323/.401 slash, .723 OPS, 21 doubles, two triples, nine homers, 31 walks, eight hit-by-pitches, 12 steals and 32 extra-base hits in that stretch. The season-long split against right-handed pitching is not explosive at .231/.309/.390 with a .699 OPS, 39 homers, 108 walks and 287 strikeouts, but this is a matchup where patience and baserunner accumulation matter as much as raw slugging. Byron Buxton is the ceiling lever if he holds in the lineup after the recent hip-flexor scratch, Trevor Larnach gives the order another left-handed on-base/power lane, Ryan Jeffers just homered Sunday, and Kody Clemens doubled twice with two RBI in the same 5-4 win over Milwaukee. Against a pitcher walking more than one-fifth of hitters and allowing hard contact on all three main pitch groups, that is enough of a five-run map: traffic early, one extra-base swing, then another shot at Houston’s middle relief.

Astros vs. Twins pick, best bet

Houston’s bats are the reason the full-game over remains the obvious counter, but the lineup context is too messy to make it the primary play. The Astros have a respectable .247 average and .733 OPS against left-handed pitching, and Yordan Alvarez still changes any inning with a swing. Jeremy Peña could return during this Minnesota series, which would help the top of the order. The broader May form is ugly, though: Houston has scored 27 runs over its last 10 games, was shut out 8-0 by Texas on Sunday, and is now without Jose Altuve after a Grade 2 left oblique strain. Carlos Correa is already out for the season, and Peña’s hamstring absence has been part of the same lineup-thinning problem. That gives the over a path if Rojas is short and Minnesota’s bullpen leaks, but it also asks a cold, injured offense to do enough of the lifting.

The market comparison points back to Minnesota’s team total. Twins ML around -119 is logical, but it still asks Minnesota’s own run prevention to cooperate. Full-game over 9.5 at a cheaper price is live, especially with Rojas unlikely to work deep and both bullpens in the picture, but it depends more heavily on Houston’s injured offense. Astros team total over 4.5 leans on that same thin lineup, while F5 over 5.5 cuts out the Houston bullpen and turns a full-game pitching problem into a shorter-window bet. Best bet: Twins team total over 4.5 runs -110, playable to -125 if Buxton, Larnach and Jeffers hold in the lineup. The clean way it loses is Imai suddenly finding the zone, Minnesota stranding early traffic, and the weather rhythm turning the game choppy. The better read is that Imai’s walk rate, hard-contact profile, recent four-inning blowup and Houston’s relief runway give the Twins enough full-game paths to get to five.

Final score projection: Twins 6, Astros 4.

Best bet: Twins TT o4.5 runs (-110) vs. Astros

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