Griffin Wong gives his best bet, pick and prediction for Saturday’s FIFA World Cup match between Algeria vs. Austria.
Algeria and Austria enter the final day of group stage competition in a fascinating position; both teams are locked into second and third in Group J after Argentina defeated each and each defeated Jordan, and a point is guaranteed to send both through to the knockouts. It’s the same situation that faced Australia and Paraguay on Thursday night; that game ended in a 0-0 draw. The match will begin at 10 p.m. ET.
Three points could be good enough to get to the knockout stage as a best third-place team, depending on their goal differential. Austria can claim second with a win or a draw, while Algeria needs to win, as Das Team has a better goal differential (currently 0 to -2). The team finishing in second will play Spain, which claimed Group H on Friday, and the third-place team — if one advances — could play Switzerland. Austria would advance as long as its loss is competitive, while any defeat would likely send the Fennecs home.
Das Team are +190 favorites to claim all three points at DraftKings Sportsbook, and Algeria is +300. There are +120 odds that the teams will draw.
Below, I’ll break down the group stage’s final contest and provide my favorite bet.
Neither of these teams has been awful so far, but both have gotten unlucky to have run into Lionel Messi. The Argentinian toyed with both teams, scoring a combined five goals, and the defending champions’ stifling defense held both off the score sheet, so Messi’s missed penalty early in the match against Austria and Marko Arnautović’s 102nd-minute penalty against Jordan are the only separators between these two teams so far. Das Team looked the slightly more impressive side, at least against the Albiceleste, but each team should feel confident about its ability to secure at least a draw.
The future is bright for Algeria; striker Amine Gouiri, a regular starter in Ligue 1 for most of the last six seasons, is still just 26, and attacking midfielder Ibrahim Maza is 20. That’s not to mention 26-year-old forward Mohamed Amoura, who led all of African qualifying in goals but has barely played at this tournament. All in all, the Fennecs have a middle-of-the-pack attack, producing 1.10 expected goals per match, though both of their goals came from corners. They’ve also completed their passes at the fourth-highest rate overall and the eighth-highest rate on passes in the final third. Defensively, Algeria has been better; it is one of 22 teams to have allowed fewer than one expected goal per match, and just 44.44% of shots against it have come inside the box, the fourth-lowest rate of any team. The Fennecs have also won at least half of both their ground and aerial duels while forcing the second-most high turnovers, and both Rayan Aït-Nouri and Ramy Bensebaini rank in the top 20 in tackles per 90 minutes among players with at least 140 minutes played. Goalkeeper Luca Zidane has been the primary issue; he’s saved only six of the 10 shots on target he’s faced, and he ranks eighth-to-last in goals prevented.
While Algeria has one of the youngest squads in the competition, Austria has one of the oldest, as its youngest player with at least 100 minutes played across the first two matches is 25-year-old Nicolas Seiwald. The elder statesmen have really carried the way; 37-year-old Arnautović is the only player on Das Team to have recorded multiple shots on target across the first two matches, and 32-year-old Marcel Sabitzer leads the way in total shots. All in all, it hasn’t worked that well offensively, as Austria has managed 1.11 expected goals on just 8.50 shots per match, the 10th-fewest in the competition. Das Team have also been awful from set pieces and completed passes at merely an average rate. Plus, compared to the Fennecs, they haven’t made up for it defensively, allowing 1.41 expected goals per match and conceding the 11th-highest shot-in-box percentage, though at least they’ve been excellent at recording interceptions and winning aerial duels. Like Algeria, Austria operates a high press frequently, but it hasn’t been as good at forcing turnovers. Das Team’s major advantage comes between the sticks; Alexander Schlager has been an above-average shot-stopper at RB Salzburg, which is more than Zidane can say.
I expect the Fennecs to be the more aggressive of the two sides; a loss by more than one goal would certainly send them home, and Austria might be okay with a competitive loss, given that it would end up avoiding Spain if it does. Goalkeeper aside, Algeria is the better team, and it matches up well against the Europeans; its clinical passing should allow it to break Das Team’s press, and Austria has been the more mistake-prone team, which would allow the Fennecs to stack turnovers. Das Team have also fouled an above-average rate and conceded more corners, and Algeria has been clinical from set pieces. I don’t trust Zidane enough to peg the Fennecs to pick up a win, but a 1-1 draw would suit both teams well.
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