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MLB Best Bets: Top Home Run Props for Wednesday 5/20/26
Garion Thorn · 2026-05-20 · via DraftKings Network

Garion Thorne details his top home run props for tonight’s slate, including bets for Juan Soto and Zach Neto.

Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on home run props during baseball games. So much so, we’ve got a whole article dedicated to just that.

Here are my top two home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for Wednesday’s slate: Juan Soto and Zach Neto.

Let’s break them down.

Top MLB Home Run Props

Juan Soto 1+ Home Run (+286)

You almost have to respect the Nationals building their entire rotation out of guys who love to give up home runs. It’s good to have a type, I guess.

On Wednesday, it’ll be Zack Littell toeing the rubber for Washington, the only person in MLB who has surrendered at least 50 long balls dating back the start of last season. Specific to 2026, Littell is giving up a whopping 3.05 opponent home runs per nine, the direct result of first percentile opponent average exit velocity (93.5) and a first percentile strikeout rate (10.6%). That’s a whole lot of hard contact. In fact, in Littell’s last five starts, the journeyman has conceded more home runs (7) than he’s managed strikeouts (6). I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a pitcher do that across a sample size that large. It’s almost impressive.

We’ll be looking for these trends to continue against the Mets, specifically with Juan Soto. The former All-Star is red-hot at the moment, having collected 10 hits – three of them home runs — in his past six games. Soto is also left-handed. That’s important. Littell gives up long balls to all, yet he’s especially had trouble with opposing LHBs this season. The RHP is allowing 4.64 home runs per nine within the split. Woof.

Zach Neto 1+ Home Run (+433)

To be honest, Neto is about the only person on the Angels’ roster that’s been hitting well across the past two weeks. That includes the former first-round pick hitting his eighth long ball of the season in Monday’s contest versus this same Athletics squad. Now, he’ll get the opportunity to square-off with Aaron Civale, in what is sort of a perfect matchup for the shortstop.

Neto’s biggest issue in 2026 has been a general inconsistency when it comes to making contact. Heck, no American League player has more strikeouts this season than Neto (69). However, the 25-year-old remains dangerous when he is putting the ball in play. Neto sports a .410 expected wOBA on batted ball events and a 70th percentile barrel rate (10.8%). Remember, this is a man who hit 49 home runs between 2024 and 2025. He’s got some real pop for a middle infielder.

Well, good news, Civale doesn’t miss bats. The veteran RHP comes into this start with an 11th percentile whiff rate (18.8%). Civale also owns an eighth percentile opponent hard hit rate (48.0%) and just a fifth percentile ground ball rate (28.9%). As the weather continues to heat up during the summer, that combination will mean a lot of home runs — something we’ve seen throughout Civale’s career.