Chicago enters Thursday at 43-37, hunting a four-game sweep at Citi Field against a 34-46 Mets team sliding toward the deadline with fresh bruises. The Cubs have taken the first three games 9-6, 10-3, and 10-5, while New York has lost five straight. The final game carries two volatile pieces: Matthew Boyd returns for his first start since May 3, and Juan Soto remains day-to-day with back tightness. Chicago has the cleaner team form, steadier defense, and hotter lineup, while New York still has enough right-handed damage to keep the total alive. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the New York Mets and the Chicago Cubs.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

Mets vs. Cubs prediction, preview

Boyd’s return gives this handicap a strange shape. His surface line is thin at 2-1 with a 6.00 ERA and 31 strikeouts, but his process is better than that number. He owns a 31% strikeout rate, 6% walk rate, .314 wOBA allowed, .322 expected wOBA, and 4.28 expected ERA. The contact sheet creates the worry: 89.2 mph exit velocity allowed, 50.8% hard contact, 9.5% barrels, .443 expected slugging, .444 expected wOBA on contact, 42.9% sweet spot, and a .397 average on contact. Peralta brings a cleaner underlying profile despite a 5-6 record, 4.83 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, and 83 strikeouts. He has allowed 87.8 mph exit velocity, 39.6% hard contact, 5.5% barrels, .306 expected wOBA, .371 expected slugging, and a 3.83 expected ERA. His 9% walk rate gives Chicago traffic, but the low barrel rate keeps the Cubs team total from becoming the lead bet.

Chicago’s offense has the series by the throat because every part of the order has touched New York. Swanson went 5-for-9 with two homers and 11 RBI in Wednesday’s doubleheader, setting a Cubs franchise record for RBI in a twin bill. He now has 15 RBI in the series. I treat that surge as lineup length more than a new baseline, since his season profile still sits around 89.3 mph exit velocity, 41% hard contact, .305 wOBA, .294 expected wOBA, and 7.5% barrels. The top half supplies stronger predictive weight. Crow-Armstrong owns 91.6 mph exit velocity, 51.4% hard contact, .383 wOBA, .366 expected wOBA, 11.6% barrels, and a 19.9-degree launch angle. Busch adds roughly an 11% barrel rate, .350 expected wOBA range, and left-handed lift. Suzuki brings 89.5 mph exit velocity, 41.1% hard contact, .353 wOBA, and 38.3% sweet spot. Happ adds 90.1 mph exit velocity, 45.3% hard contact, and 13.8% barrels.

New York’s counter starts with Boyd’s fastball. He throws the four-seamer more than half the time, and hitters have tagged it for a .347 average, .490 slugging, .411 wOBA, .377 expected wOBA, and 71.4% hard contact. His changeup and slider are far better, with a 36.8% whiff rate on the change and a 50% whiff rate on the slider. That split makes early fastball command essential. Alvarez is the best Mets bat for that weakness after homering in both games Wednesday. He carries 90.8 mph exit velocity, 45.3% hard contact, .340 wOBA, .353 expected wOBA, and 17.1% barrels. Vientos adds 89.5 mph exit velocity, 44.6% hard contact, .318 expected wOBA, 10.2% barrels, and a 14.9-degree launch angle. Soto’s return would change New York’s ceiling, but his back status makes the Mets harder to trust.

Cubs vs. Mets pick, best bet

The context still favors Chicago, even without a bullpen runaway. New York’s bullpen has the stronger season-long profile, with a better ERA and WHIP than Chicago’s relief group. The current setup is less comfortable. The Mets moved Senga to relief after a 10.08 ERA stretch, and this series has already strained their pitching and defense. New York committed six errors Wednesday night, turning a close game into a 10-5 loss and adding stress behind every pitcher. Chicago’s bullpen has more season-long HR risk, but Boyd’s strikeout-walk shape can keep the front end competitive. Citi Field weather helps offense modestly, with sunny conditions near 82 degrees and a high around 84. The wind and park setup do not erase Peralta’s barrel suppression.

Cubs ML at -112 is the best bet. It captures Chicago’s series control, Mets defensive chaos, Soto uncertainty, Boyd’s strikeout-control upside, and Peralta’s inflated ERA without demanding five Chicago runs or a multi-run margin. Cubs -1.5 at +145 looks tempting after three straight wins by margin, but Boyd’s return and Chicago’s bullpen volatility make that price thinner than it looks. Cubs team total over 4.5 at even money has heat, but Peralta’s .306 expected wOBA and 5.5% barrel rate allowed hold it back. The over 8.5 at -114 is the best alternate because Boyd’s fastball can get hit, especially if Soto starts. I prefer the team with better form, cleaner defense, and less roster turbulence.

Best Bet: Cubs ML (-112)

Projected score: Cubs 5, Mets 4

Best bet: Cubs (-110) at Mets

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