Best MLB prop bets today for May 1, 2026. Top picks include Dodgers team total, Colson Montgomery props, and a Simeon Woods Richardson fade.
Looking for the best MLB prop bets today? We’ve got a few strong spots to target on the May 1 slate, with a mix of offensive upside and pitchers in tough matchups. The Dodgers are in a great position against Matthew Liberatore and a shaky Cardinals bullpen, Colson Montgomery draws a favorable matchup against Germán Márquez’s struggles against lefties, and Simeon Woods Richardson continues to give up runs at a high rate heading into a tough spot against the Blue Jays. Let’s break down the best MLB prop bets on the board.
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Let’s break down the top MLB prop bets and picks for today. Click on each headline below to view the latest odds and bet these plays on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Matthew Liberatore will take the mound tonight for the Cardinals in St. Louis. He brings with him a 4.75 ERA with an xERA of 5.82 and a 6.40 FIP. Home runs have also been a major issue, as he’s allowed eight through 30.1 innings and six starts. Now he faces a Dodgers team that is second in home runs with 45 and an overall .354 wOBA.
Liberatore relies heavily on his four-seam fastball, throwing it 35% of the time as his main pitch. While you’d think staying away from that against the Dodgers might be a good plan, his secondary pitch, a slider, has been his worst pitch. Opposing hitters have tagged that for a .401 wOBA with a 56% hard-hit rate. So, regardless of whether it’s the four-seam or slider, the Dodgers will be in a great spot. Tonight’s expected lineup, dating back to last season, has a combined .368 wOBA and a .233 ISO against the four-seam and a .325 wOBA with a .175 ISO against the slider. Once Liberatore departs, he’ll give way to a Cardinals bullpen that’s been one of the worst in the league.
I like this spot for Montgomery going against Germán Márquez. Marquez has been a total mixed bag on the mound, as he’s either given up no runs or four runs through five starts. He’s been able to shut out the Angels and Pirates, but against the D-Backs, Rockies, and Giants, they’ve all scored four runs. His biggest issue has been lefties, who have tagged him for a .386 wOBA, a 7.03 FIP, and four of the six home runs he’s allowed. Montgomery should hit cleanup tonight and be surrounded by lefties. Four of the top five hitters should be hitting lefty, giving Montgomery RBI and run opportunities should he reach base. At +105, that’s the play I’m making tonight.
Woods Richardson has been allowing over 2.5 earned runs almost every five days at this point. After going under that total in his first two starts, he’s now gone over in four straight, including a prior start against the Blue Jays. In that game, he tossed four innings, allowing five runs on six hits before departing. Now he’ll face a Blue Jays lineup that has George Springer back in the mix. Woods Richardson throws three pitches: a four-seam, splitter, and slider. None of these have been effective, as opposing hitters have a minimum .360 wOBA against all of them this season. Dating back to last season, the Blue Jays are excellent against the four-seam overall and have solid power numbers against the splitter and slider. I wouldn’t be shocked if we saw similar results from Woods Richardson from his prior start against the Jays tonight.
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Good luck with your MLB prop bets today!
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