The defending champions begin their title defense on Sunday afternoon. The top-seeded Thunder rolled through the Western Conference, earning an NBA-best 64-18 record. Their reward is a first-round date against the eighth-seeded Suns (45-37). Can Phoenix earn a massive upset over Oklahoma City in Game 1?

The Thunder are 14.5-point favorites (-102) over the Suns on DraftKings Sportsbook. Oklahoma City is favored at -1100 on the moneyline. The total for this contest is set at 215.5 points. Here’s my preview, prediction, and pick for Sunday’s Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Phoenix Suns postseason matchup.

Suns vs. Thunder prediction, preview

It took two games, but Phoenix survived the play-in tournament with a 111-96 win on Friday vs. Golden State. The most impressive aspect of that victory came defensively; Steph Curry only scored 17 points on four-of-16 shooting. It’s not as if this performance came out of nowhere either. The Suns held opponents to just 111.0 points per game this season, sixth-fewest in basketball. That’s due in part to operating at the association’s seventh-slowest pace on offense (97.17). By limiting possessions, Jordan Ott’s crew tends to keep games from getting out of hand.

Generating offense has been a bit more of a challenge for Phoenix. Fortunately, face of the franchise Devin Booker remains an exceptional scorer. This season, the guard is averaging 26.1 points, 3.9 rebounds and 6.0 assists to go with 46/33/87 shooting splits. Elsewhere, two-way wing Dillon Brooks (20.2 PPG) has enjoyed a career year. Still, the x-factor for the Suns might be Jalen Green. The 24-year-old missed the majority of this season due to injury. However, he has the potential to go off in big games. During both play-in tournament contests, the guard tallied a combined 71 points on 28-of-49 shooting (57% FG). Phoenix attempts 40.7 three-pointers per game, fifth-most in the NBA.

The Suns will need to put together a masterful performance in order to secure a Game 1 victory. Oklahoma City is an absolute juggernaut, pacing the association in a number of statistical categories, The defending champs rank first in net rating (+11.1), defensive rating (107.7) and record at home (34-7). The straw that stirs the drink is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, gunning for his second straight MVP award. Through 68 games this season, the point guard has posted 31.1 points, 4.3 rebounds and 6.6 assists while shooting an efficient 55% from the field. He’s joined by fellow All-Stars Jalen Williams (17.1 PPG, 4.6 REB, 5.5 AST) and Chet Holmgren (17.1 PPG, 8.9 REB).

Star power is nice, but what separates OKC is its depth. This roster is stocked to the brim with quality two-way role players. Names such as Alex Caruso, Lu Dort, Isaiah Hartenstein and Cason Wallace are all battle-tested in the postseason. The Suns aren’t exactly lacking in this category either, but even their stellar bench doesn’t stack up. Part of what makes the Thunder so difficult is their ability to stifle some of the NBA’s elite scorers. Booker is averaging 19.2 points on 38% shooting during his last five meetings with Oklahoma City.

These teams played each other five times this season. However, just two of those matchups came with both at relatively full strength. Coincidentally, the Suns managed to earn a three-point victory back in January, while the Thunder notched a four-point win in November. Small sample size? Maybe, but it does offer some hope for Phoenix this afternoon.

Suns vs. Thunder pick, best bet

It’s never easy to go against OKC, a squad that seems to produce blowouts at will. Still, a 14.5-point spread feels a tad rich against the 45-win Suns. Keeping that in mind, the best bet on the board might be the under. After all, these teams both rank inside the NBA’s bottom six in points allowed per game. Phoenix’s only path towards victory will be avoiding a shootout, while the Thunder can shut down any offense. If either scenario happens on Sunday, this bet should cash.

Best Bet: Suns vs. Thunder under 215.5 total points (-110)