Bryan Armetta offers up a preview, prediction and pick for Tuesday’s MLB game between the Cincinnati Reds and San Diego Padres.
Playoff contenders are set to clash at Petco Park this evening. The Reds (31-34) are treading water despite playing in the loaded NL Central. However, five straight losses have sent Cincinnati stumbling below .500. It’s a similar story for the Padres (34-31), currently in the midst of a free-fall. Can San Diego clinch a series win this week against a National League foe?
The Reds are favorites (-125) over the Padres, with the over/under set at 7.5 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Tuesday’s showdown between Cincinnati and San Diego on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Even if Cincinnati has been sputtering as of late, Tuesday’s pitching matchup provides some hope. Chase Burns will be taking the mound tonight, making his 13th start of 2026. Over 70.1 innings of work, the right-hander has recorded a 2.05 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 81 strikeouts (10.4 K/9). So far, the 23-year-old has allowed more than two earned runs only once this season. At this point, it’s not hyperbole to anoint the youngster as one of the sport’s premier pitchers.
There’s a good chance Burns continues his dominance on Tuesday in SoCal. The Padres are averaging an MLB-worst 3.80 runs per game. In addition, San Diego ranks last in the majors with a .214 batting average, .288 wOBA and .330 wOBAcon. Hitters such as Fernando Tatis Jr. (94 wRC+), Jackson Merrill (69 wRC+) and Manny Machado (66 wRC+) have fallen well short of expectations. It doesn’t help these hitters that half of their games take place at Petco Park, baseball’s sixth-most pitcher-friendly venue per Savant.
There’s nothing fancy about Burns’ approach; he’s thrown a fastball 57% of the time this season. His average velocity on the pitch is a whopping 98.0 MPH, top 93rd percentile among qualified pitchers. Against four-seamers at that speed or higher, Padres batters have posted a .198/.274/.292 slash line.
As for the Friars, they’ll hand the ball to Lucas Giolito on Tuesday. Signed at the end of April, it’s been a shaky start to the veteran’s San Diego tenure. During four appearances (16.2 IP), the righty has produced a 4.76 ERA and whopping 1.74 WHIP. If anything, the 31-year-old has gotten somewhat lucky. He’s on the hook for a 5.14 xERA, .246 xBA and 17.3 BB%. Already a soft tosser, Giolito has seen his velocity dip even further this season. His fastball has been topping out at just under 91 MPH.
San Diego shouldn’t wave the white flag just yet, however. Cincinnati is without its best hitter, shortstop Elly De La Cruz (hamstring). The team has a .696 OPS against right-handed pitching, tenth-lowest in the majors. To make matters even worse, Cincinnati is averaging the ninth-fewest runs per game on the road (4.18). Regardless, this unit doesn’t need to score a boatload of runs with Burns on the mound. As previously mentioned, Giolito doesn’t generate many swings and misses. That’s ideal for the Reds, who strike out more than any other National League club. Failure to exploit that weakness could make things difficult for San Diego’s hurler on Tuesday.
Sometimes, it just boils down to the man on the mound. Burns has been a revelation, well on track to his first career All-Star Game selection. San Diego, despite its star power, has been pathetic at the plate. Well into June, this is starting to look like the new normal for the Padres. As for the Reds, their homer-happy lineup may need only one or two big swings to put this one out of reach.
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