Charlie Cummings previews the upcoming second-round NBA Playoffs series between the San Antonio Spurs and Minnesota Timberwolves in the Western Conference Semifinals.
The Western Conference is a bloodbath as usual. The ascendant San Antonio Spurs dispatched the Portland Trail Blazers easily in the first round, earning their first playoff series win since 2017. Now, they face a battle-tested Timberwolves team which upset the Denver Nuggets despite their injuries. Minnesota is looking to make a third straight Western Conference Finals, but only one team will make it through.
The Spurs are -2000 to win the series, while the Timberwolves are +950 underdogs on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Let’s dig into a preview and prediction for this second-round playoff series.
San Antonio managed to advance in five games, but it wasn’t without a scare. In a Game 2 loss, the Spurs not only ceded that matchup at home to the Blazers, but they lost Victor Wembanyama to a nasty concussion. However, they managed to pick up a win without him and he came back to close out the 2-1 series lead. And they sure showcased their immense potential: they held the Blazers to an 81.0 offensive rating in half-court possessions according to Cleaning the Glass, which is tops in the league during this postseason.
Of course, Wemby has to be excellent here, and we’ve come to expect that. But who else will step up? Stephon Castle’s rim pressure and point-of-attack excellence was vital against the Blazers, but can he generate the same pressure against Rudy Gobert? Will De’Aaron Fox continue to knock down shots and set up his teammates? The wing group remains fascinating since other than Julian Champagnie, nobody feels truly safe in their role at the moment. Keldon Johnson, Harrison Barnes, and Devin Vassell are big swing factors in the series. Of course there’s Dylan Harper, who is key to their bench lineups. The 20-year-old rookie showed out with a 27-point performance in that key Game 3 win and will be crucial to countering Minnesota’s surprisingly robust bench.
Rightly so, the Spurs are big favorites in this one, but they can’t coast here. Minnesota has a massive leg up in terms of playoff experience, and with the injury issues, the Wolves likely feel like they are playing with house money. If the Spurs aren’t careful, this one can sneak up on them.
Injuries, injuries, injuries. That’s the concern for these Wolves. Donte DiVincenzo won’t return until next season after tearing an Achilles and Anthony Edwards’ absence is likely to last for the duration of this round. Talk about needing some guys to step up.
The defense didn’t stop grinding against the Nuggets. They held Denver’s offense to under 100 points three times in the last four games of the series, winning all three times. Rudy Gobert was nothing short of sublime, routinely disrupting Nikola Jokic while grabbing over 10 boards per game. Jaden McDaniels was everywhere, taking the tough Jamal Murray matchup and largely clamping him. Enough buckets from Julius Randle and Ayo Dosunmu, the breakout star of the series, carried them over the line.
It’ll have to come from the defense again if they want to upset the Spurs. Gobert has to be as good, if not better, than his young French protegé on the defensive end of the floor. He needs to gather up every rebound in sight. McDaniels has to be at a similar level of excellence to contain Fox and Castle. If Minnesota can leverage its size by using Randle/Reid/Gobert properly, it can get an advantage on the glass and in the paint. But is that enough to pull off the win?
Ayo Dosunmu is literally and figuratively the swingman. He put up 21.8 PPG while largely coming off the bench against Denver, with a scorching 61%/55%/95% shooting split at that. Can he get it going against a much better defense, or will the Spurs lock him up tight?
Now we know these teams a bit better. What is the best way to bet this series?
I was extremely confident that the Nuggets would make short work of the Timberwolves, who stumbled into the postseason while being dogged by injuries. And despite those injuries getting worse, they managed to make Jokic and the Nuggets look feeble at best.
The talent gap here is very difficult to ignore. But these Spurs are still cutting their teeth in the postseason, which feels weird to say about the most successful franchise of the past 30 years. When the offense dries up and Minnesota goes on a run, there will be times where they find it difficult to respond, and that’s more than enough to swing a couple of games in this series.
Let’s get really weird here. The veteran moxie of the Wolves is enough to snatch one of the road games and steal home-court advantage out of the gate. But that will wake up the Spurs, who will win both road games, just as they did against the Blazers. Minnesota won’t roll over down 3-1, but the Spurs won’t let this one get to seven games. If we’re going to play the 6+ game series card to begin with, might as well take a shot at the exact result as a long shot.
Game 1 of the Spurs vs. Timberwolves series will take place on Monday, May 4. The time has not yet been decided on, pending the results of other first-round matchups.
Game 1 will be held at the Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, with the Spurs holding home-court advantage in the series.
This is a best-of-seven series between the Spurs and Timberwolves. The first team to win four games will move on to the Western Conference Finals.
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