Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets will be fighting for their playoff lives Monday night as they take on the Minnesota Timberwolves. The Nuggets have fallen in a 3-1 series hole and will look to defend their home court to extend the series and keep their playoff hopes alive.

The series outlook changed significantly in Game 4. While the Timberwolves picked up the victory, Donte DiVincenzo suffered a torn Achilles tendon, and Anthony Edwards suffered a knee injury, both of which will keep them out tonight and beyond.

The Nuggets enter as 11.5-point favorites with -500 moneyline odds for Game 5 on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Timberwolves are +380 underdogs, with the game total set at 224.5 points.

Let’s dive into my favorite Nikola Jokic player prop for Monday’s must-win contest.

Best Nikola Jokic prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook

Nikola Jokic Over 9.5 Assists (-114)

It’s been an ugly playoff series for Nikola Jokic and the Denver offense. The three-time MVP averaged 27.7 points, 12.9 rebounds, and 10.7 assists across the regular season. Through the first four playoff games, Jokic is averaging 25 points, 14.5 rebounds, and 7.8 assists. He is shooting just 39.1% from deep and 18.5% from beyond the arc. Denver’s NBA-leading offense in the regular season has been held to 96 points in back-to-back games.

Jokic has 31 total assists through the first four games on 60 potential assists. While the team’s offensive struggles begin with the superstar, they apply to the entire roster. Minnesota has done an excellent job matching up with this high-octane attack, with Rudy Gobert excelling at slowing down Jokic.

However, expect a last-ditch effort from the Nuggets to keep their season alive, with the do-it-all big man pulling the strings. Denver has arguably one of the greatest home-court advantages in sports, and role players tend to play better at home. The Nuggets seem due for some shots to fall, and Jokic will likely be the one facilitating the action.

Count on Denver to continue playing through Jokic as he works to get the offense back on track. Expect plenty of two-man action with Jamal Murray, and for the absence of Edwards and DiVincenzo to shake up Minnesota’s defense.

Jokic is one of the most gifted playmakers of all time, and his diminishing assist numbers are a product of an offensive funk. Back the Nuggets to find their rhythm, with Jokic leading the charge. Count on him to clear 9.5 assists in Game 4, just as he did in 42 of his 65 games during the regular season.

Nikola Jokic to Record 3+ Made Three-Pointers (+203)

Perhaps the most frustrating area of Jokic’s struggles has come from beyond the three-point line. The eight-time All-Star is shooting just 18.5% from downtown on 6.5 perimeter attempts per contest. Jokic has shot 2-for-7, 1-for-7, 2-for-10, and 0-for-3 from deep so far this series.

Minnesota has committed to leaving Rudy Gobert in one-on-one coverage with Jokic this series. The four-time Defensive Player of the Year has held up against arguably the best player in the world better than he ever has. Gobert has masterfully contained Jokic in the post, and the typical response from the Nuggets star is to attack from the three-point line.

Jokic shot 38% from three during the regular season after shooting 41.7% on triples the season prior. He drilled at least three triples in 17 games this season, including two of four matchups with Minnesota. Jokic is a better shooter than his series numbers show, and he has continued to attack from outside the arc.

With Gobert’s interior impact in mind, expect Jokic to space the floor early and knock down at least three triples in Game 5. It will take an all-out effort from the Nuggets to keep their season alive, and Jokic’s perimeter presence will be paramount to the effort.