In the final matchup of today’s four-game NBA playoff slate, the Los Angeles Lakers will face off with the Houston Rockets. It has been a surprising start to the series, with the Lakers leaping out to a 3-0 advantage and now one win away from advancing to the second round. Houston will need to bring an increased level of desperation and offensive production to keep their season alive.

You can check out the full preview and prediction for the series on DraftKings Network here.

Looking at the odds for Game 4, the Rockets enter as a 4.5-point favorite and hold -162 odds of winning outright on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Lakers hold +136 odds of winning outright with the game total set at 207.5.

Lakers vs. Rockets preview

It has been a bit of a turbulent season for the Lakers, but they have done a nice job maximizing their available talent. Los Angeles finished the season with a 53-29 overall record to earn the fourth seed in the Western Conference. Across the regular season overall, the Lakers have gone 46-36 against the spread, and the age total has 41-41 to the over/under.

Injuries have become a factor in this series, with both Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves being sidelined due to injury for the Lakers. Doncic remains sidelined with a hamstring issue, while Reaves has been upgraded to questionable with his oblique injury. There is legitimate optimism that Reaves will suit up tonight for the first time since April 2nd, and this return is well ahead of schedule from the initial timeline. His 23.3 points, 5.5 assists, and 4.7 rebounds per game will be a major addition to this Lakers squad. 

Los Angeles leans on an offensive-minded style of play for their success. They finished the regular season ranked 11th in scoring, ninth in offensive rating, 11th in opponents’ points allowed, and 19th in defensive rating. LeBron James continues to win his battle with Father Time, averaging 25.7 points, 9.7 rebounds, and 8.7 assists across the opening three games in the series. Marcus Smart and Luke Kennard each have scaled up their offensive roles, averaging 20+ points per game, and Rui Hachimura, Deandre Ayton, Jaxson Hayes, and Jake LaRavia each also play important roles.

The Houston Rockets took the big swing to trade for Kevin Durant this offseason with the hopes of leaping into the true contender category. But they have not played at this level for any consistent stretch and have looked increasingly concerning of late. They finished the regular season with a 52-30 record to finish as the fifth seed in the West. Houston went 39-43 against the spread and the game total has remained under in 43 of their 82 games played.

Durant has not been the clear fit to elevate the team in the way it has hoped, and he is listed as questionable tonight with an ankle injury. The 16-time All-Star missed Game 1 due to a knee injury, returned for Game 2 and suffered a sprained ankle, and then was held out of Game 3 for this ankle injury. Durant was listed as questionable for most of today and has now officially been ruled out for tonight’s game. Steven Adams and Fred VanVleet also remain sidelined.

Houston is dependent on their defense to set the tone and lead to team success. They finished the regular season ranked 18th in scoring, eighth in offensive rating, fourth in opponents’ points per game,and sixth in defensive rating. Alperen Sengun is responsible for headlining the production, with even more on his plate without Durant. He is averaging 24.0 points, 11.7 rebounds, and 5.7 assists through the opening three games. Amen Thompson has been vital to the team’s success, with the Rockets winning the 149 postseason minutes he has played by seven points and being outscored by 27 across the 15 minutes he has sat. Jabari Smith Jr., Tari Eason, and Reed Sheppard are also playing notable roles.

Series Takeaways

The Lakers have been underdogs in all three games and won outright in addition to covering the spread. Houston has been favored by 7.5, 5.5, and 2.5 points in the series. The game total has also remained under in two of the three games.

Injuries have been a factor for both teams, but it has been surprising for the Rockets to be impacted more. The biggest concern coming into the series was the potential for Houston to dominate the glass and out tough the Lakers on the interior. But the Lakers have proven ready for this challenge and have not allowed this to be a major factor in the series outlook.

LeBron James is also proving that the days of him leading a team on a deep playoff run as the primary option are not over just yet. The Lakers have gotten the necessary help from some of the X-Factor tole players like Luke Kennard and Marcus Smart. There has also been a level of desire and competitiveness shown by the Lakers that is necessary in the postseason setting. The youth of this Rockets team has been put on display, as exemplified by the meltdown in Game 3. Houston became just the second team since 1997 to lose after leading by six or more points in the last 30 seconds of regulation. 

Across the board, the Lakers have looked more polished, better coached, and have capitalized on the vulnerabilities that Houston has shown. Most frustrating from the Rockets’ perspective is that most of their issues have been self-inflicted. Los Angeles is not a clear better team if both sides play to their peak. But the Rockets have been far too sloppy compared to the required level that this high-intensity environment requires. The gap in experience from the LeBron James-led team and this youthful Rockets’ roster has been fully put on display.

Lakers vs. Rockets Game 4 prediction, pick

On one hand, the talent gap between these two teams should not result in a series sweep. But it is tough to talk yourself into this Rockets team based on what they have shown in the series.

Houston was eliminated from last season’s playoffs with their lack of offensive creation the biggest issue. They traded for Durant to help solve this, and his team-leading 26.0 points per game have helped their offensive outlook. But he will be sidelined again tonight, leaving concerns for the clunky offensive approach that continues to haunt them. The Rockets have been held to 98, 94, and 108 points across the first three games, with the lone matchup that cracked 100 points being the game that went to overtime.

Expect more of the same tonight and for the Lakers to smell the blood in the water for the series. Rest is more important to LeBron James than ever before in his career. Expect a clear focus to finish the job and maximize time before the next series. James has led the charge himself, but the Rockets have been unable to create enough of an advantage against the Lakers on the boards and Los Angeles has proven far more capable of matching Houston’s defensive level than Houston has been able to match the Lakers’ offensive attack. Get ready for an interesting offseason in Houston and for their offensive flaws to officially sink their season tonight.

Best Bet: Lakers Moneyline (+136)