Tipping off as part of tonight’s four-game WNBA slate, the Phoenix Mercury will take on the New York Liberty. Neither of these teams has gotten off to their desired start. This is also the second of back-to-back matchups between these teams, with the Liberty producing an 84-74 win on Wednesday.

Looking at the odds for tonight’s matchup, the Liberty enter as 5.5-point favorites and hold -225 odds of winning outright on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Mercury hold +185 odds of winning outright, with the game total set at 170.5 points.

Let’s get into a pick and prediction for this Mercury at Liberty matchup.

Mercury at Liberty Preview

After finishing with a 27-17 record last year, the organization’s best record since 2014, the Phoenix Mercury are off to a 2-6 start to the season. Their pair of wins came against the Las Vegas Aces and Chicago Sky, but they enter this matchup on a four-game losing streak. On the season, Phoenix is 3-5 against the spread, and the game total has gone over in five of the eight games.

Kahleah Copper headlines the production for the Mercury, posting averages of 18.8 points, 2.5 rebounds and 2.3 assists. Alyssa Thomas adds 16.9 points, 8.1 assists and 7.9 rebounds, largely setting the tone for this Phoenix team. Jovana Nogic and Natasha Mack also average in double figures, while Monique Akoa Makani, DeWanna Bonner, and Kiana Williams also play key roles. Bonner is officially listed as probable for tonight, while Sami Whitcomb remains sidelined as she recovers from knee surgery.

As a team, the Mercury are scoring 85.6 points per game, which ranks 10th in the league. Phoenix ranks ninth in offensive rating, ninth in field goal percentage, and 11th in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 86.6 points per game against the Mercury, which ranks ninth in the league. They also rank 11th in defensive rating, ninth in opponent field goal percentage, and dead last in opponent three-point percentage.

After winning the 2024 WNBA Championship, the New York Liberty took a step back last season as injuries bothered their outlook. The organization made some major changes this offseason, which included firing head coach Sandy Brondello and making some notable roster decisions. Sabrina Ionescu, Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones each returned as the stars. Satou Sabally, Rebecca Allen and Raquel Carrera were brought in as key additions, while Natasha Cloud, Emma Meesseman and Nyara Sabally left in the offseason. Betnijah Laney-Hamilton and Han Xu were also brought back to the team. New York enters with a 4-4 record to start the season. It has gone 3-5 against the spread, and the game total is 4-4 to the over/under.

Stewart headlines the production for New York, averaging 20.0 points and 8.6 rebounds. Ionescu has battled injuries to start the year, suiting up for just one game so far, and will remain sidelined tonight due to a back issue. Marine Fauthoux will also be sidelined. Jones adds 13.1 points and 8.4 rebounds of her own, while Pauline Astier and Marine Johannes are also averaging double figures. Satou Sabally, Leonie Fiebich, and Laney-Hamilton also play key roles.

Through their first eight games, the Liberty rank seventh in the WNBA in scoring at 88 points per game and are producing the sixth-best offensive rating. Defensively, opponents are scoring 85.1 points per game against New York, which ranks sixth in the league. New York also ranks seventh in defensive rating.

Mercury at Liberty Pick, Best Bet

While expectations were milder for the Mercury, neither of the teams has lived up to their early hopes. However, there have been some clear concerns with this Liberty team through their first few games. There were questions about the fit of this roster coming into the season, and they have not reached the necessary gear on either side of the ball.

My lean would be the Liberty taking some steps in the right direction and covering the 5.5-point spread for the second consecutive game against this Mercury team. However, my best bet is the game total remaining under the 170.5 line for this matchup.

The total finished at 158 points in Wednesday’s matchup. This was despite the Liberty shooting 14-for-30 (47%) on three-point attempts and the pair of teams adding 28 combined points at the free throw line.

Phoenix is averaging 85.8 points per game on the season, but was held to a season-low 74 points in the previous game. New York did an excellent job slowing down the pace of play and preventing Phoenix from having a pathway to reliable offense. Expect more of the same tonight, especially with New York ranking in the top seven in opponent points allowed and defensive rating.

The Liberty were expected to be one of the most dominant offenses in the league, but have yet to look the part. Before scoring 84 points in the previous game, New York had been held to 74, 76, and 70 points in the three previous games. Expect it to take Sabrina Ionescu being available at a reliable rate for this team to reach its offensive peak. This will not be the case tonight, so expect the struggles to continue.

This is a matchup in which it feels ambitious to expect either side to escape the 80’s from a scoring perspective. Count on the 170.5 game total to be too high based on the context of the matchup and for the defenses to shine tonight.

Best Bet: Game Total Under 170.5 Points (-110)