The NL East landscape has shifted considerably since October. Back then, the Philadelphia Phillies were battling the eventual champion Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL Division Series. The Atlanta Braves, meanwhile, were stewing at home after their first missed postseason since 2017.

Now, as the clubs open another series Friday night at Truist Park, the Phillies (8–17) have lost nine straight games and fallen to the bottom of the division. And the Braves (18–8) sit atop the standings after winning eight of their last nine, including a three-game sweep of the Fightins in Philly.

Looking at the probables for Friday’s series opener, we’ve got a pitching rematch between rookie Phillies right-hander Andrew Painter (1–1, 4.42 ERA) and veteran Braves righty Grant Holmes (1–1, 3.42 ERA).

First pitch is set for 7:15 p.m. ET. Atlanta enters as a 1.5-run home favorite with -149 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. Boston sits as a +123 underdog, with the total set at O/U 9.5 runs.

Phillies vs. Braves Preview

Philadelphia Phillies

Things aren’t looking good for the Phillies. The club’s nine-game slide is the longest active losing streak in baseball, and they haven’t inspired much hope for a turnaround. Despite the slugging contributions of Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper, Philadelphia ranks in MLB’s bottom five for batting average (29th), wRC+ (26th), wOBA (26th), and total runs scored (27th).

It also hasn’t helped that the pitching staff has been derailed by injuries, awful batted-ball luck, and dreadful defense. The Phillies rank dead last in both BABIP (.358) and defensive runs saved (-14). While the club sits 28th in ERA at a bloated 5.12, its 3.78 xERA stands as the eighth-lowest mark in the league.

Philadelphia will be eager to buck the trend Friday night when it hands the ball to rookie right-hander Andrew Painter. The organization’s No. 2 prospect, 23, has taken his lumps early on, pitching to a 4.42 ERA (2.94 xERA) with a 1.36 WHIP and 20 strikeouts through his first four outings (three starts). In his last start — fittingly against the Braves — Painter surrendered three earned runs over four innings on five hits, including a home run to Michael Harris II.

Atlanta Braves

In a stunning juxtaposition, things couldn’t be going better for the Braves. They boast one of the most potent offenses in MLB, with three regulars — Matt Olson, Harris II, and Drake Baldwin — posting a wRC+ north of 150. Baldwin, the reigning NL Rookie of the Year, leads the league with 34 hits, cementing his path to becoming one of the game’s breakout stars.

Atlanta enters Friday’s contest ranking in the top three for wRC+ (3rd), wOBA (2nd), and home runs (2nd), while pacing the majors in runs scored. (And that’s with a slumping Ronald Acuna Jr.)

Meanwhile, the Braves’ pitching staff has danced around batters to the tune of a 3.12 ERA, the second-best mark in baseball. Albeit with the help of early batted-ball luck, the club’s 3.53 xERA remains firmly planted in the league’s top three. On Friday, veteran right-hander Grant Holmes takes the mound, looking to build on his impressive start to the season. The longtime minor-leaguer, who debuted with the Braves in 2024, has posted a 3.42 ERA (3.53 xERA) with a 1.10 WHIP and 21 strikeouts through his first five turns. Holmes allowed two runs over 4.2 innings in his first stab at the Phillies order, mitigating the damage from an early two-run shot off the bat of Schwarber.

Phillies vs. Braves Pick, Best Bet

Atlanta is one of the hottest teams in baseball, while Philadelphia is the polar opposite. Fresh off a road sweep of the Phillies, the Braves get to take a few more swings at their spiraling division rival on Apple TV’s Friday Night Baseball — with a national spotlight. Expect the former powerhouse to remind the world who runs the NL East.

Best Bet: Atlanta Braves -1.5 Runs (-149)