San Antonio Spurs vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

The Spurs and Thunder are tied 2-2 as the Western Conference Finals head to a pivotal Game 5 in Oklahoma City. Earlier in the series, it was San Antonio that appeared to be impacted more by injury, but as the series has progressed, now its OKC with some concerning injuries.

Both Ajay Mitchell and Jalen Williams missed Game 4 in San Antonio, and the Thunder were blown out. While OKC has been elite all season, missing that duo specifically seems to hinder the defending champs. Sunday night’s loss dropped OKC to just 11-10 on the season when Williams and Mitchell are both out, compared to 65-10 in all other games. Is there something there? Maybe.

At the same time, trends strongly back this spot for the Thunder. After dropping Game 1 of this series, OKC won and covered in Game 2. That was OKC’s first loss of this postseason, but if we go back through their 2025 title run, the Thunder are 8-0 following a loss in the last two playoffs, including 7-1 ATS and 5-0 ATS at home.

The last 11 times a team has lost Game 4 of the conference finals on the road in the NBA, that team has returned home and gone 9-2 ATS in Game 5. I lean towards OKC taking a 3-2 series lead at home in this spot, but ultimately will pass of the side. The trends are encouraging, but the injuries are real. Not to mention, Victor Wembanyama is simply an unseen force on the other side. I feel much stronger about backing a player than a side in this one.

I’m going back to a prop that just barely failed us in Game 4, but should be in strong position to cash in Game 5. Cason Wallace finished Game 4 with five points and four rebounds, shooting just 2-for-8 from the field. His 21 minutes played were his fewest of the series, getting pulled in the blowout. Prior to Sunday, Wallace had played 25 or more minutes in each of the first three games of the series, averaging 10.3 points and 5.0 rebounds.

As mentioned, Mitchell has been ruled out, and it would be shocking to see Williams suit up. That means we should see Wallace start — which he did 58 times this season, averaging more than nine points and over three boards. Wallace should be in position to see plenty of opportunity in Game 5. I expect a far more competitive effort from OKC, so minutes shouldn’t be a concern. We should also project Wallace to improve upon one of his worst shooting games of the postseason.

NBA Pick: Cason Wallace 6+ Points/3+ Rebounds (-115)