Helping to close down tonight’s loaded MLB slate, the Pittsburgh Pirates will take on the Colorado Rockies. The Rockies opened up the series with a 4-3 win yesterday. Paul Skenes and Tomoyuki Sugano are the expected starters for their respective teams for the Game 2 matchup tonight.

Looking at the odds, the Pirates hold -219 odds of winning outright and -136 odds on the -1.5 run line on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Rockies hold +178 odds of pulling off the upset and the run total is set at 10.5.

Pirates at Rockies prediction, preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates enter with a 38-38 record on the season and are hoping to fully climb into the playoff picture. They are looking to bounce back from the loss to the Rockies yesterday and have dropped nine of their last 13 matchups. On the season overall, the Pirates have gone 37-39 to the run line, and the run total is 43-30-3 to the over/under.

Paul Skenes will take the ball tonight and is in the midst of another stellar season. The reigning Cy Young Award winner enters with a 2.85 ERA, a 0.927 WHIP, and with 60 hits and 99 strikeouts across 82.0 innings pitched. Skenes has faced off with this Rockies roster in 46 at-bats in his career and limited them to slash lines of .130/.149/.217. Jake McCarthy is the only player to have recorded multiple hits against him.

As a team, the Pirates rank second in the MLB in hits, fifth in runs, 12th in home runs, and they are tied for the second-most strikeouts. Brandon Lowe leads the team with 18 home runs and 49 RBIs. Oneil Cruz, Ryan O’Hearn and Bryan Reynolds each have also tallied 10+ home runs and 41+ RBIs on the season, although Cruz is currently out injured. Nick Gonzales is tied with Reynolds for a team-high 77 hits, while Spencer Horwitz and Marcell Ozuna also play key roles.

The Colorado Rockies enter with a 29-47 record on the season, which slots them in last place in the National League West. They are looking to build off of a 4-3 victory yesterday, but they are 5-9 across their past 14 games. On the season, Colorado has gone 39-37 to the run line, and the run total is 35-39-2 to the over/under.

Tomoyuki Sugano will be making his 15th start of the season for the Rockies. He enters with a 4.54 ERA, a 1.336 WHIP, and with 76 hits and 37 earned runs allowed across his first 73.1 innings pitched. Sugano has given up two or more earned runs in eight straight starts. He has only faced off against this Pirates roster in six at-bats in his career. However, one of these was a home run by Brandon Lowe.

Looking at their production at the plate, the Rockies rank fifth in the MLB in hits, 13th in runs scored, 18th in home runs, and sixth in strikeouts. Hunter Goodman leads the team with 21 home runs and 39 RBIs. Mickey Moniak and TJ Rumfield have also cracked double-digit home runs, although Moniak is currently on the injured list. Troy Johnson adds a team-high 73 hits and 21 doubles, while Willi Castro and Jake McCarthy also play key roles.

Pirates at Rockies pick, best bet

Neither of these teams sit exactly where they desire in the standings, but each have had some significant bright spots already this season. Both sides have put forth some respectable offensive outputs and provide a greater threat at the plate than you might expect for teams of their caliber.

However, this is a drastic gap in pitching talent, and this will be the difference in this matchup. Paul Skenes continues to reinforce why he is on the shortlist of best pitchers in baseball while not even performing to his peak this season. His career-worst 2.85 ERA is better than most pitchers can logistically dream of, and he has held opponents to two or fewer earned runs in 11 of his 15 starts.

In contrast, Tomoyuki Sugano has shown some signs of improvement this season and is still not at the level required for the Rockies to consistently be put in positions to win. He allowed an MLB-leading 33 home runs last season and already has conceded 13 this year. This will continue to be a concern playing in the hitter-friendly Coors Field. Sugano limited opponents to one or fewer earned runs in four of his first six starts this year. Since that point, he has given up two or more earned runs in eight straight games, with 27 total earned runs across this stretch. Even if he is chased from the game early, the Rockies’ bullpen is posting a collective 5.13 ERA, which is the second-worst rate in the MLB. 

Expect Skenes to attack this Rockies lineup after facing a stretch of tough opponents in his past handful of starts. Colorado will not roll over, but it is difficult to see a pathway to many runs being put on the board. Pittsburgh has put on a scrappy offensive approach all season, and the power numbers have started to surge. Count on the Pirates doing enough damage at the plate to create a path to win in this favorable matchup, and for Skenes to leave no doubt on the mound in what should be a comfortable victory tonight.

Best bet: Pirates -1.5 (-136)

Tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!