The AL East is currently a two-dog race for the top, and to the surprise of plenty, the Tampa Bay Rays are one of them. This team just keeps rolling in the division lead, whereas the Toronto Blue Jays are in the midst of a hangover after their World Series appearance and still trying to get back to the .500 mark. Today, these sides meet for the third and final matchup of a three-game set, which Tampa Bay took the first two legs of.

Here’s a betting prediction and pick for Wednesday’s Rays vs. Blue Jays matchup courtesy of MLB odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Rays vs. Blue Jays prediction, preview

Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays have captivated fans with some impressive performance far above the preseason expectation for the franchise. They’re atop the AL East at 28-13, the best record in the league and second best in all of baseball. They’re scorching hot at the moment as well, winning nine of their last 10 outings. Tampa Bay averages 4.54 runs per game — 11th in the sport — with an OPS of .709 that ranks 13th. The full slash line reads .258/.330/.379, and it’s clear they’re using small-ball tactics with an ISO of just .121 (third lowest) and just 34 homers (sixth fewest). That strategy is working though, ranking sixth in BB/K ratio (0.46) and tying with Toronto for the best K% in baseball (18.5%). Coupled with an excellent pitching staff, it’s translated to positive results. The Rays have an ERA of 3.51 that falls fifth among all teams and a low 1.15 WHIP, also bringing a relatively average K-BB% of 12.9%. The arms have been excellent overall, even if they’re outperforming a 3.95 FIP.

The Rays roll out RHP Griffin Jax as an opener, who’s started three games and appeared in 14 total this season. He holds a 5.00 ERA and 1.44 WHIP, striking out 17 batters in 18.0 IP. He’s generated an impressive 57.7% ground ball rate that ranks in the 95th percentile so far this year but has given up plenty of hard-hit balls.

Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays were just in the World Series last postseason before ultimately falling short at the hands of the Los Angeles Dodgers. As it turns out, the hangover can strike the losers of the big one as well. Toronto is only 18-24 on the year at fourth in the AL East, also dropping seven of its last 10 outings. The outlook is rough while weathering some injuries, but even still, this team just can’t find its stride. The Jays average 4.17 runs per game, 22nd in the MLB, with a .684 OPS that sits 24th. Their full slash line comes in at .247/.308/.376. They don’t have impressive power with .129 ISO (24th) and 39 homers, and their speed score of 3.4 is dead last among all MLB teams. The Blue Jays are also second-to-last in BB% at only 7.6% as well, leading to an 0.41 BB/K ratio. While the pitchers have yielded an average ERA of 4.19, a 1.30 WHIP is slightly elevated. However, they do have a 15.5% K-BB% that ranks eighth best.

The Jays will start RHP ace Dylan Cease, who’s gone 3-1 in his eight starts for his new team. He’s produced a 2.58 ERA and 1.24 WHIP, and his strikeout stuff is electric as always with a 34.6% K% that sits in the 98th percentile. He’s absolutely dealing and keeping teams in check amidst an excellent campaign.

Rays vs. Blue Jays pick, best bet

DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Blue Jays as -156 Moneyline favorites at home tonight. The Rays come in at +129 odds to win outright. The run total also sits at 7.5 combined runs between these sides.

Best Bet: TB Rays under 1.5 runs first five innings (-125)

Cease has been flat-out demolishing opponents so far this season, so if there’s any direction to bet this game, it’s to back him for an impressive outing. I think he’ll get the better of the Rays while he’s around even though they’re not a strikeout-heavy team by any means. The star arm has delivered an 89th-percentile grade in pitching run value and has above-average marks in just about every category on his Baseball Savant page, also generating a ton of movement with his arsenal of pitches. Cease has also gone at least five full innings in all but one of his starts this year, so I’m not particularly worried about him getting chased in this one. He should keep scoring down to allow this bet to cash on under 1.5 runs for Tampa Bay in the first five frames.