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Two overtimes made for double the fun last time the Dallas Stars and Minnesota Wild clashed in the first round of these Stanley Cup Playoffs. In the end, the visitors emerged with a win after a Wyatt Johnston tip-in silenced the crowd in the State of Hockey, sending the home faithful home sad at the end of the extra periods. Now, Dallas looks to run it back with a 2-1 lead in the series as Minnesota tries to defend home ice and prevent the deficit from growing.
Here’s a Stars vs. Wild Game 4 prediction and pick for Saturday’s NHL Playoffs action on DraftKings Sportsbook.
This series is as close as anyone could have asked for. While Game 1 ended in a 6-1 blowout, the other two contests finished with final scores of 4-2 and 4-3, the second of which went a little over 90 minutes deep in terms of actual gameplay and finished up at 12:54 a.m. local time. Clearly, nobody will go down without a fight now that the Stars have shaken off that embarrassing loss in the opener.
Granted, the Wild looked like the superior team for large swathes of the overtime periods last time out. They rallied from down 2-0 to even force extra time to begin with, and most of overtime took place in their offensive zone. They also outhit the Stars for the third consecutive game, though the 37-34 margin was much closer than in the previous two matchups. However, Kirill Kaprizov was notably quiet with just two shots (he has only six in the series) and zero points. Additionally, the home side shouldn’t have let the visitors back into the game to begin with.
In what seems to be typical Dallas fashion, the Stars once again pulled a rabbit from their magic hat. After coughing up their 2-0 lead and going down 3-2 heading into the third period, Matt Duchene equalized at three goals apiece in the final frame to force overtime. Johnston’s winner was just the capstone on what was a heroic performance in OT — the Stars killed off multiple penalties in extras, one of which came in no small part thanks to a stickless Radek Faksa as he put his body on the line in a shift that fans will surely remember forever.
That special teams play has been the story of the series so far. Dallas has maintained an advantage on the power play in each of the last two games and looked every bit of the elite team with the man advantage that we saw during the regular season. Perhaps even more impressive is that the Stars have allowed just one goal despite being shorthanded 11 times over the last two contests as well. The kicker? They’ve given up just one high-danger chance on the penalty kill in each of those.
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Wild as -135 favorites to win at home on the Moneyline tonight, while the Stars come in with +114 odds on the road. The game total sits at just 5.5 combined goals.
Betting splits show 62% of straight bets on Minnesota to win, 73% of wagers on Dallas to cover the +1.5 puck line, and 74% on the total’s over.
If the Minnesota penalty kill is going to struggle with a 64.7% PK%, then the outlook appears dire for this one. The Wild have allowed six goals on Dallas’ 17 power-play chances this series, so clamping up when shorthanded is surely the focus of this coaching staff right now. Finding a way to spark more production from Kaprizov will also be crucial since he’s a Hart-caliber talent. With their top guy lacking at the moment, keeping up with Dallas could prove difficult.
Even with that said, I’d rather take the under on the game total in this matchup. The over has cashed twice in three games, but both teams are playing very physical hockey and the results would lean towards the under instead had the Stars not landed an empty-netter at the end of Game 2. The most important stats to know in regard to the reasoning on this pick? The goaltender have looked very impressive for the most part. Jesper Wallstedt has a .916 SV% and 2.27 GAA over his first three career playoff games. While Jake Oettinger struggled in the opener and has an .889 SV% with a 2.85 GAA in the series, he’s stopped 57-of 62 shots over the last two games and maintains a career .924 SV% and 2.13 GAA when playing in Minnesota.
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