Keagan Smith gives his best bet on DraftKings Sportsbook along with a prediction and pick for Saturday’s FIFA World Cup match between Tunisia and Japan.
As the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup continues, we’re diving into each and every matchup to find value for bettors. In Group F, Japan is looking to make a splash after a disappointing draw to open play. Likewise, Tunisia seeks an upset in this match and is still looking for its first point of the tournament.
Kickoff for Tunisia vs. Japan is scheduled for Sunday, June 21 at 12 a.m. ET in Guadalupe, Mexico. Let’s dive in for a top prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for this 2026 FIFA World Cup match.
Japan isn’t a favorite to win the entire World Cup by any means, but does come in at No. 17 in the world rankings from FIFA. They’ve made eight consecutive appearances in the tournament and have reached the Round of 16 in two straight tries back in 2018 and 2022, so this is certainly a team to take seriously.
Their first fixture against the Netherlands was a difficult draw given that the latter has +1800 odds of winning the World Cup per DraftKings Sportsbook and sits eighth in the rankings. However, Japan performed admirably in their first and likely toughest matchup of the Group F. While they didn’t win the possession battle at just 40%, they did emerge from the fixture with two goals on eight shots and an 88% mark in pass accuracy. The game was tied going into the half before the Netherlands struck twice coming out of the break, but the Japanese side rallied with goals from Keito Nakamura and an 89th-minute miracle from Daichi Kamada to secure the draw and a point. However, they’re operating without Kaoru Mitoma and Takumi Minamino, who are both out due to injuries. The version of this squad that beat England 1-0 in a friendly earlier this year isn’t the exact same one we’ll see throughout the tournament.
The opposition is Tunisia, a nation which sits 56th in the world rankings and just dropped 11 spots after the opening round. They’ve never advanced past the Group Stage, but have qualified in each of the last three opportunities.
The story around Tunisia right now is incredibly intriguing. After suffering a 5-1 loss to Sweden in the opening game of Group F play, Sabri Lamouchi was abruptly fired, joining just a handful of managers to ever be sacked during the tournament. Lamouchi spent just five games at the helm of the program after being appointed in January and lost three of those, so while the move does feel stunning, it’s not without cause. He was replaced by Herve Renard, who is now with his third career national team and also managed the French women in 2023. It’s unlikely that a ton of tactical changes are made given the short turnaround, meaning the Tunisians will likely continue to prioritize defensively sound football. This isn’t the most talented squad by any means, but perhaps the new manager bump can help spur them into action.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Japan are -190 favorites on the Moneyline with +310 odds of a draw and +600 odds of a Tunisia upset.
Japan does maintain a significant advantage in this one. The Blue Samurai play excellent, team-centric football and the selfless nature instilled in their players has them making the right move more often than not. They’re tactically sound and work well from the wings, and while they aren’t likely to put forth a true blowout, they should win this match comfortably. I expect them to win, and Daizen Maeda’s odds of an anytime goal make him a top pick to find the back of the net. He scored an astounding 12 goals across seven games for Celtic in the domestic season and should be able to put his prowess on display here.
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