Griffin Wong preps you for Game 5 between the Minnesota Timberwolves and the San Antonio Spurs with game-script analysis and Captain’s Picks.
Last night, the Oklahoma City Thunder sealed their place in the Western Conference Finals after completing their sweep over the Los Angeles Lakers. Now, all that awaits is for them to figure out their opponent. It looked likely to be the San Antonio Spurs, who had taken a 2-1 series lead headed into Sunday’s Game 4 against the Minnesota Timberwolves, but the Timberwolves tied the series up 2-2, sending it back to South Texas level.
San Antonio is a 10.5-point favorite for tonight’s 8:10 p.m. ET Game 5 at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the point total set to 218.5. The Spurs are -410 on the Moneyline, and Minnesota is +320.
DraftKings is offering a Showdown contest for the must-win game, so I’ll take you through my two captain’s picks, two UTIL picks, and one fade. Let’s dive in:
Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $400K Fadeaway [$100K to 1st] (MIN @ SAS).
Victor Wembanyama ($18,000 CP) – Wembanyama is the most expensive player on the board by $3,000, but with all due respect to Anthony Edwards ($15,000 CP), no other player on either team holds a candle to the Frenchman’s talent and overall impact. He had just four points and four rebounds (9.5 FPTS) after being ejected in the second quarter of Game 4, but that performance came on the heels of a 39-point, 15-rebound, five-block (73.75-FPT) effort two nights earlier in Game 3. Wembanyama has had at least 64 FPTS three times in his last five games in which he played his regular minutes; Edwards has not recorded that many since March 13.
Of course, the Timberwolves aren’t the easiest matchup in the world, as they roster arguably the greatest defender ever in Wembanyama’s compatriot Rudy Gobert ($11,100) and have had a top-10 defense in each of the past four seasons. They did a good job limiting Wembanyama offensively in Game 1, holding him to just 11 points (64.25 FPTS) on five-for-17 shooting. Still, their aggressiveness in driving downhill (they rank second in shots within five feet so far these playoffs) makes them susceptible to shot-blockers, and there’s no shot-blocker better than Wembanyama, who set a new NBA postseason record with 12 swats in Game 1. Plus, while Minnesota is a strong rebounding team, Wembanyama has still been effective; among the 16 players averaging at least 15 rebound chances per game so far these playoffs, he ranks second in rebound chance percentage and Gobert merely fifth.
Naz Reid ($9,900 CP) – Instead of choosing one of the Timberwolves’ other most expensive players as an alternative captain, I’ll opt for Reid, whose price point is low enough that users would be able to stack both Wembanyama and Edwards as UTILs. Reid was tremendous in both of the games in Minnesota, averaging 16.5 points, nine rebounds, and 4.5 assists (38.25 FPTS) per game. He’s seen a minutes uptick from 24.7 per game in the first round against the Denver Nuggets to 28.5 so far this series, in nearly direct correlation with Gobert’s dip from 34.7 per game to 29.8. His uptick in minutes hasn’t necessarily come with one in salary; though he averaged a $6,033 DFS valuation in the first round, he had a salary of at least $6,600 in three of the six games despite his more limited role.
Reid is a better matchup for San Antonio than Gobert is. Though the Spurs have been the most defensively sound team so far these playoffs — having Wembanyama helps — Reid offers the stretchability that Gobert does not. Additionally, San Antonio’s main defensive vulnerability is their tendency to give up corner threes, and Reid was a solid 41.9% corner three-point shooter during the regular season on high volume (147 attempts). The Spurs have rarely put Wembanyama on Reid, instead choosing to guard him with Julian Champagnie ($7,500 CP) and Keldon Johnson ($4,500 CP), who rank in the 25th and 71st percentiles, respectively, in points saved per 100 possessions. Plus, because Reid comes off the bench, he spends a disproportionate amount of time in non-Wembanyama minutes, and San Antonio has been 11.5 points per 100 possessions worse defensively in such situations so far these playoffs.
Ayo Dosunmu ($7,000) – Picking Wembanyama as captain requires frugality, so while Edwards or Wembanyama would be a no-brainer for someone with a different captain, Dosunmu is a solid value play. He hasn’t had a great series, missing Game 1 with an injury and playing only 10 minutes in Game 2, but he’s really not that far removed from scoring 25 and 43 points (41.25 and 53.5 FPTS) in back-to-back games to help the Timberwolves take a 3-1 lead in the first round. Of course, the latter of those games came without Donte DiVincenzo for basically the full game and Edwards in the second half, but Dosunmu already had 14 points at the time of Edwards’ exit. He’s been elevated into the starting lineup ahead of Mike Conley ($2,400).
To an even greater extent than Reid, Dosunmu’s value against the Spurs hinges on his three-point shooting. San Antonio also gives up a lot of wide-open threes while collapsing the paint, conceding the fourth-most per game so far these playoffs. That works just fine for Dosunmu; he’s shot 46.5% on uncontested triples so far these playoffs and converted at a 43.5% clip during the regular season. While his drives might be snuffed out, he also likes to pass it to Jaden McDaniels ($8,400) and Julius Randle ($9,200), who are capable corner shooters in their own right. Additionally, the Spurs have mostly guarded him with De’Aaron Fox ($8,000), a passable but not great defender.
Dylan Harper ($5,400) – Harper was arguably San Antonio’s best player down the stretch in Game 4 with Wembanyama in the locker room, as he recorded 24 points, seven rebounds, and three steals (39.75 FPTS). Though his two best games of his maiden playoffs have come with Wembanyama sidelined, he’s had some great games alongside him, too, recording 18 points, four rebounds, and four assists (29.5 FPTS) in Game 1 and 17 points, three rebounds, and three steals (28.25 FPTS) in the close-out game against the Portland Trail Blazers. He has excellent chemistry with Wembanyama; in the regular season, the pair posted a plus-27.6 net rating in nearly 600 minutes on the court together, and so far these playoffs, that mark is a still-elite plus-9.9. Minnesota has guarded him mostly with Terrence Shannon Jr. ($4,600), who was statistically one of the worst defenders in basketball this season, and Edwards, whose effort on that side of the ball waxes and wanes.
Julius Randle ($9,200) – Randle was a key driving force in the Timberwolves’ run to their second consecutive Western Conference Finals last season, and he had a solid first-round series against the Nuggets, averaging 19.2 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 4.2 assists (30.25 FPTS) per game. However, this series has been a different story; he’s scored exactly 12 points in each of his last three games, and he’s averaging just 14.3 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 1.8 assists (26.56 FPTS) per game overall. He just hasn’t been able to get many good looks, attempting 0.7 fewer shots per game within five feet of the basket and 1.2 more in the short midrange than he did during the regular season. Plus, he’s had a smaller playmaking responsibility this series, averaging just 5.3 potential assists per game, a dip from 8.6 per game during the regular season. He also has an extremely difficult matchup in Stephon Castle ($8,800), who ranked in the 91st percentile in points saved per 100 possessions during the regular season. Castle has held Randle to just five-for-18 shooting so far this series and has flummoxed the league’s best players all campaign.
Minnesota is a feisty team, and it has both the shooters and the rebounders to give San Antonio a real challenge. Sure, the Timberwolves’ wins came with the Spurs’ superstar big having one of his worst offensive games of the season and with him absent after being ejected, but they played San Antonio tight in Game 3 despite his absolute masterpiece and despite shooting just 38.4% from the field. Minnesota is a team that consistently over-performs in the playoffs.
The fundamentals just lean too far in the Spurs’ favor. They’ve dominated the paint this series, averaging 10.5 more points in the paint per game, and they’ve been exceptional in transition. San Antonio has also produced more wide-open threes per game despite the Timberwolves being much better at closing out in the regular season. Minnesota is winning the rebounding battle so far, but given each team’s performance during the regular season, any normalization would likely favor the Spurs.
Wembanyama is never not motivated, but after effectively costing his team Game 4 by getting ejected, he’ll surely be even more fired up than usual, and he’s consistently proven himself capable of rising to the moment. He and Castle will do just enough to put San Antonio on the brink of a date with Oklahoma City.
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