An intriguing contest on this week’s UFC Fight Night Main Card is in the Lightweight division between Rafa Garcia vs. Alexander Hernandez. Garica has won two straight while Hernandez’s current winning streak is at four. The Main Card for this event begins at 8:00 p.m. ET on Paramount+.

Check out my best bet for Rafa Garcia vs. Alexander Hernandez at tonight’s UFC Fight Night.

Alexander Hernandez Moneyline (-130)

Garcia has a record of 18-4 with 10 finishes and is 4-1 in his previous five contests. In Garcia’s last fight, he beat Jared Gordon by third-round knockout. Even though Hernandez has four more losses, he has seemed to turn a corner. That is because he hasn’t suffered a loss in nearly two years.

On DraftKings Sportsbook, Hernandez is a slight -130 favorite with Garcia being a +110 underdog. The over/under for this fight is set at 2.5 rounds, with the over at -238. This fight is -200 to go the distance and +150 to end early.

In this contest, Hernandez is two inches taller and has a two-inch longer standing reach (72″ vs. 70″). Both fighters average 4.31 significant strikes per minute. On the ground, it favors Garcia, but Hernandez should be able to neutralize that with his elite 73 percent takedown defense. If Hernandez can keep this a striking matchup, he should be able to find success, as he is more powerful.