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Looking for the best MLB prop bets today? We’ve got a few strong spots to target on the April 27 slate, with a mix of offensive upside and pitchers in vulnerable matchups. The Angels are in a great position against Anthony Kay and a shaky White Sox bullpen, Jose Ramirez draws a power-friendly matchup against Steven Matz, and Ranger Suarez faces a disciplined Blue Jays lineup that could keep him from working deep into the game. Let’s break down the best MLB prop bets on the board.
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Let’s break down why these stand out on today’s slate.
Let’s break down the top MLB prop bets and picks for today. Click on each headline below to view the latest odds and bet these plays on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Anthony Kay is set to take the mound for the White Sox tonight, and that has me all over the Angels team total. After a deceptively strong start to the season, the wheels came off against the Diamondbacks in his last start. Kay was demolished for 8 runs on 8 hits over 3.2 innings. His advanced stats showed this was coming sooner rather than later, and his 5.57 ERA, xERA of 7.72, and 6.51 FIP show we still have more to go. The Angels could do a lot of the same damage we saw the D-Backs do, as they’ve been crushing lefties. Tonight’s expected lineup has a combined .347 wOBA with a .199 ISO against lefties so far this season. They’ve also been very patient with a 10% BB%, as Kay currently owns a 5.1 BB/9.
Kay is a heavy four-seam fastball pitcher, throwing it nearly 35% of the time this season. The Angels have fantastic numbers against that pitch, dating back to last season. Tonight’s lineup combines for a .366 wOBA with a .257 ISO against it. Once he departs, he’ll give way to what’s been one of the worst bullpens in the league, who have allowed the third-most earned runs and the most walks in the league.
Usually, when someone is throwing a sinker as their primary pitch, they induce a lot of ground balls. Well, someone needs to let Steven Matz know that, because his current fly ball rate of 47% is the highest of his career by a wide margin. Not only that, of the five home runs Matz has allowed, four of them have come off his sinker. Seems to me like his main pitch is doing the opposite of what it should be.
With that in mind, this is a situation I’m looking to take advantage of. Ramirez has always done well against sinkers to begin with and has a .428 wOBA with a .280 ISO against it dating back to last season. Matz also features a changeup, which Ramirez has a .457 wOBA and a .348 ISO against. Matz throws those two pitches nearly 78% of the time. Ramirez has been hitting for a lot of power in the early going and already has logged at least two total bases in 12 of his 29 games.
Suarez has been a mixed bag in a Red Sox uniform. When he’s been good, he’s been unhittable! When he’s been bad, he’s been really bad. Suarez has two starts where he didn’t allow a single run against the Cardinals and Tigers, which spanned 14 innings. In his other three starts against the Yankees, Padres, and Astros, Suarez threw 13 innings, allowing 12 runs on 18 hits. The Blue Jays’ overall numbers against lefties aren’t impressive, but when you whittle down to tonight’s expected starting lineup, it gets much better. That lineup has a combined .349 wOBA, a 12% K%, and a 12% BB%. In the three starts where Suarez allowed runs, he didn’t make it further than 4.2 innings, which would put him way under this total. Banking on him to go almost through six seems unlikely with the matchup ahead of him.
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Good luck with your MLB prop bets today!
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