Best MLB prop bets today for April 28, 2026. Top picks include the Pirates team total, Yordan Alvarez props, and a Merrill Kelly fade.
Looking for the best MLB prop bets today? We’ve got a few strong spots to target on the April 29 slate, with a mix of offensive upside and pitchers in tough situations. The Royals are in a great position in a hitter-friendly environment against Luis Severino, Miguel Vargas draws a favorable matchup against a struggling lefty, and Brayan Bello continues to show signs that he won’t be working deep into games. Let’s break down the best MLB prop bets on the board.
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Let’s break down the top MLB prop bets and picks for today. Click on each headline below to view the latest odds and bet these plays on DraftKings Sportsbook.
The Royals’ offense is finally starting to click. Despite only scoring one run last night, their prior six games saw them plate at least five runs. Tonight, they have a great opportunity to get back on that trend against Luis Severino and the Athletics bullpen. Playing in Sacramento is a big bump to bats, as Sutter Health Park is an extreme hitters’ ballpark. Look no further than Severino’s stats this season at home: he owns a 7.11 ERA, a .436 wOBA, an 8.33 FIP, and all four home runs he’s allowed. His numbers last year weren’t much better, as he threw 82.1 innings in Sacramento and had a 6.01 ERA, a .345 wOBA, a 4.34 FIP, and 10 of the 16 home runs he allowed. Severino also continues to struggle with his command this season, walking at least three hitters in five of his six starts.
The Athletics bullpen has also felt the same pain that Severino has at home. Combined, they’ve thrown 103 innings in Sacramento and have a 6.20 ERA, a 6.04 FIP, and a 1.75 HR/9. With how well the Royals bats are swinging right now, I expect a lot of runs to come across for them tonight.
Going with an interesting prop this afternoon for Vargas. He’s not a consistent hitter, but he’s been flashing some pop against lefties, and I want to try and exploit that today. He’ll face Yusei Kikuchi, who has a 6.21 ERA with a 4.91 xERA and a 40% fly ball rate. He mainly throws a fastball and a cutter, both of which haven’t been working for him. Opposing hitters have a .388 wOBA against the four-seam and a .455 wOBA against the cutter. Vargas has been hitting lefties extremely well in the early going, and of the 10 hits he has against them, seven have gone for extra bases. It’s a bit of a risky prop, but, as this isn’t like a “total bases” prop where if he hits two singles, it clears the bet. He must hit a double, triple, or home run. At +170, for how he’s been hitting, I’m willing to take a shot here.
I don’t know why Bello’s outs recorded prop continues to be this high. For him to hit the over on this prop of 16.5, that means he needs 17 outs recorded, which is 5.2 innings. He’s gone under this number in four of his five starts and hasn’t completed five innings in any of those. Now he faces a good-hitting ball club in the Blue Jays, who have a combined .363 wOBA against the sinker, Bello’s main pitch, this afternoon.
Bello essentially throws three pitches: a sinker, a cutter, and a changeup. None of those pitches has been effective at all. Of those three, opposing hitters have tagged them for at least a .474 wOBA and an xBA of .327. You’re not going to find much success with numbers like that. Until this outs total starts coming down, it almost feels like an automatic under for me at this rate. But, truth be told, I don’t think we’ll be getting these opportunities much longer with Bello rumored to be exiled from the rotation sooner than later.
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Good luck with your MLB prop bets today!
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