Alex Hunter breaks down the upcoming Eastern Conference Finals between the New York Knicks and Cleveland Cavaliers.
The No.3-seeded Knicks will face the No.4-seeded Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference Finals. This will be the third time these teams have met in the postseason, with New York taking each of the first two series.
The Knicks are -265 favorites to win the series on DraftKings Sportsbook, while the Cavaliers are +215 underdogs.
The Knicks find themselves in the Eastern Conference Finals for the second year in a row, and they are playing their best basketball of the season at the right time. New York dispatched the Hawks in six games in the first round before sweeping the 76ers in the conference semifinals. The Knicks clinched this series eight days ago and finished off Philadelphia with a 30-point blowout in Game 4. New York is 8-2 this postseason, and five of these victories have been by at least 29 points. The Knicks have won seven straight and rank first in net rating during these playoffs at +20, even ahead of the defending champion Thunder at +17.0.
New York has been a well-oiled machine, ranking second in both offensive and defensive rating, and first in both true shooting percentage and rebound rate. Jalen Brunson has been terrific, leading the Knicks with 27.4 points per game. Meanwhile, OG Anunoby has been one of the best two-way players in these playoffs, averaging 21.4 points on 61.9% shooting, to go along with 7.4 rebounds, 1.9 steals, and 1.1 blocks per contest. Karl-Anthony Towns has also been outstanding and contributing in every area, averaging 17.4 points, 10 rebounds, 6.6 assists, 1.5 blocks and 1.1 steals per game.
Anunoby missed the final two games of the series vs. the 76ers with a hamstring strain, but he returned to practice over the weekend and is expected to be ready for Game 1 against the Cavaliers. New York sweeping Philadelphia was huge, as it gave Anunoby time to heal. By Tuesday’s Game 1, the Knicks will have not played an NBA game in nine days, whereas Cleveland just closed out the Pistons in a Game 7 on Sunday.
The Knicks were 2-1 against the Cavaliers during the regular season. That one loss was the final matchup in February, after Cleveland acquired James Harden. This shouldn’t be a concern for the Knicks, however, as they are playing worlds better basketball right now and are well-rested. New York has the defenders to bother Harden and Donovan Mitchell, and the Cavaliers’ defense slowing down the Knicks’ ascending offense feels unlikely, as Cleveland ranks eighth in defensive rating among the 16 teams this postseason. If the Knicks can avoid any injuries, their first NBA Finals berth since 1999 will be well within reach.
After beating the Raptors in seven games in the first round, the Cavaliers defeated the top-seeded Pistons in seven games in the conference semifinals. Cleveland went into Detroit this past Sunday and embarrassed the Pistons in Game 7, 125-94. Cleveland led by as many as 35 points and held the lead for essentially the entire contest. The Cavaliers put their veteran experience on full display and notched their most impressive victory of the postseason.
It hasn’t been all smooth sailing for the Cavaliers this postseason, though. The squad is 8-6 and just 2-5 on the road. Cleveland ranks sixth in net rating. The team’s offense has been strong, ranking fifth in offensive rating and fourth in true shooting percentage. But defense has been its Achilles heel, ranking eighth in defensive rating. The team hasn’t been overly efficient on the glass, either, ranking seventh in rebound rate.
Donovan Mitchell is leading the Cavaliers with 25.6 points per game. He’s coming off one of his top playoff performances, posting 26 points, eight assists, and six rebounds in Game 7. Still, the guard has struggled on the road at times during these playoffs. Mitchell is averaging 28.4 points on 48% shooting at home compared to 22.9 points on 40.9% shooting on the road. Evan Mobley was also awesome in Game 7, finishing with 21 points, 12 rebounds, six assists, two blocks and two steals. But he, along with James Harden, has also struggled with consistency, especially away from home.
Jarrett Allen has been the most steady contributor for the Cavaliers on both ends of the floor, ranking second in net rating for the team. The big man is averaging 13.1 points, 7.3 rebounds, 1.9 blocks and one steal per game. He went off for over 20 points in both of Cleveland’s Game 7 wins. There are times when opponents play smaller lineups, resulting in fewer minutes for Allen. But if Cleveland is smart, this coaching staff will rely heavily on Allen in this series with the Knicks to slow down Towns and expose New York’s interior defense.
But at the end of the day, the Cavaliers will need their best players, Mitchell and Harden, to play like stars in almost every game if they want to win this series against New York’s elite coverage.
Now we know these teams a bit better. What is the best way to bet this series?
The Knicks have been unstoppable, and the extra rest should work in their favor — not against them. Plus, New York having home-court advantage in this best-of-seven is a big deal, considering the Cavaliers are just 2-5 on the road this postseason. This series shouldn’t go the distance, and backing the Knicks to win by multiple games seems like a no-brainer.
Despite Anunoby’s impressive play, Brunson is still very likely to lead the Knicks in scoring in this series. The guard is leading New York with 27.4 points per game and a 31% usage rate this postseason, both of which are high marks among all the players competing in this best-of-seven. Mitchell is the main threat to Brunson in this market, but his inconsistent play on the road gives Brunson the clear edge.
Game 1 of the Knicks vs. Cavaliers series will take place on Tuesday, May 19, at 8 p.m. ET.
Game 1 will be held at Madison Square Garden in New York, as the Knicks hold the home-court advantage in the series.
This is a best-of-seven series between the Knicks and Cavaliers. The first team to win four games will advance to the NBA Finals.
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