Keagan Smith provides a series preview, prediction and pick for Golden Knights vs. Ducks in the second round of the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs.
With the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs rolling on, we’re getting into the second round at long last.
It’s a bonanza in the Pacific Division once again as the Vegas Golden Knights look to continue their trek to a likely Western Conference Final appearance, especially with the Edmonton Oilers now out of the picture. However, the Anaheim Ducks, who just dispatched Connor McDavid and Co. in quite the upset, stand in the way and won’t go down without a fight.
Here’s a detailed look at this Golden Knights vs. Ducks series, including a preview, betting odds, and a top pick on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Playoff runs are nothing new for Vegas, which won the 2023 Stanley Cup and has been a perennial contender at this time of year for essentially the entire length of the franchise’s existence. While the regular-season performance was rather weak with 95 points enough to win the Pacific Division, the Golden Knights are beginning to look more formidable heading into the second round after rallying to take three straight games and the series against the Utah Mammoth in their opening matchup.
So, what does this roster do well? It starts with their experience under pressure in postseason environments, putting that on display with a pair of overtime wins in the opening series. After some slower nights, the offense finally broke loose with 15 goals over the final three games of the first-round matchup to bring the Golden Knights’ average to 3.83 goals per game in these playoffs. They’re also posting 30.7 shots on goal per game, though that total is inflated slightly by the overtime contests. Still, Jack Eichel and Mitch Marner predictably lead the roster in points while Mark Stone and Ivan Barvashev are third and fourth. Pavel Dorofeyev and Brett Howden also have four goals apiece to tie for the team lead. As a whole, the power play has hit at a 20.0% rate as well.
The defense certainly isn’t as strong as in seasons past, though. Vegas gave up an average of 3.00 goals per game in the first round, just worse than the 2.95 mark from the regular season. However, the penalty kill excelled at a 93.8% clip and was already seventh best prior to the playoffs, so that’ll be a serious strength. Here’s the question, though — goaltender Carter Hart ended the regular season on a heater but has been quite inconsistent through six playoff games, recording an .898 SV% and 2.72 GAA. He’s also 12th among playoff goalies with at least one start in SV% above expected and underperforming a 2.48 xGAA. Can he tighten up in this series?
Look at the other side of this second-round series and tell us whether you expected the challenger to be here? Odds are, you probably didn’t have the Ducks coming out on top over the Oilers, but alas, here we are. There’s no doubt that they’ve displayed some impressive resilience and took the bull by the horns in that one, but still, their 92 points and -15 goal differential during the regular season aren’t the most encouraging signs you look for on the confidence meter.
Here’s the fun part. Anaheim averaged 3.23 goals and 30.8 shots per game during the regular season, but the offense truly took flight in the postseason. The Ducks put up 4.33 goals per game, the most of any team in the field, also hitting on the power play at a stunning 50.0% rate. They also did so without a single 70-point scorer on the roster, and only Cutter Gauthier even managed to reach 30 goals during the regular season (which he ended with 41 in 76 games). Leo Carlsson and Bennett Sennecke are standout running mates, and Jackson LaCombe’s nine points in six games are quite the feat thus far for the defenseman. Even Troy Terry is producing at better than a point-per-game pace. Will those numbers stick, though? The success on the man advantage almost certainly will regress, and it’s not like the Ducks are facing Connor Ingram in net again.
The thought of Anaheim as a serious threat to advance will depend on the defense, which allowed 3.5 goals per game last round on 32.3 shots a night. The scoring mark is in line with the regular-season average of 3.51, and the penalty kill only stopped opponents at a 76.4% rate over the first 82 games. Now, it’s true that the Ducks faced an excellent offensive team which deployed the NHL’s best power play this season, so perhaps their defensive woes look worse on paper due to matchup. However, the play of Lukas Dostal in his first Stanley Cup Playoffs has been subpar with an .874 SV% and 3.87 GAA. His xGAA of 3.08 is somehow better, and his SV% above expected is the third worst of netminders with more than one appearance in this postseason.
The Golden Knights are favored to win this second-round series at -190 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. On the other side, the Ducks are +160 underdogs to emerge from this best-of-seven.
The story of this series is easily whether Vegas’ experience and ability to clamp down on defense will ultimately give the elder roster the edge. From what the odds tell us, it seems early signs point to yes. The Golden Knights notably allowed the second-fewest shots on goal to opponents during the regular season at just 24.4 per game, also limiting them to the fourth-fewest high-danger shots in the process. Taking away some of the Ducks’ volume — especially higher-quality looks that they ranked 12th in throughout the regular season — will prove crucial to holding Anaheim’s offense in check. In particular, defending the rush will also be an integral factor, so it’ll be up to Hart to limit scoring on breakaways even if he doesn’t have a defender in front to rely on for support.
Now, will the netminder hold up if the Vegas defense doesn’t slow down the opposing side? That’s a pretty tough sell. He’s underperformed already in the playoffs and sits 16th in SV% against unblocked low-danger shots as well as 13th against unblocked medium-danger shots among postseason goalies with more than one appearance. Anaheim may not even need high-quality chances to find the weak points in his armor.
Still, the other goalie looks even shakier as Dostal was repeatedly picked apart to the tune of 20 goals across six outings last round. His play in the regular season wasn’t much better with a 3.10 GAA and .888 SV% in 56 games, though he did receive enough support from his skaters to reach 30 wins. He’s difficult to trust against a playoff-proven, battle-tested Vegas lineup that has its fair share of finishers and playmakers — even if that roster never hit its peak during the first 82 games this year. For that reason, it’ll be the Golden Knights in this series, and I like them to win Game 1 as well in front of a very passionate home fanbase. Watch for the Ducks to keep the overall matchup somewhat close though, possibly even pushing this to six games or so.
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