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Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami Marlins prediction, pick for ...
Bryan Armett · 2026-05-06 · via DraftKings Network

Bryan Armetta offers up a preview, prediction and pick for Tuesday’s MLB game between the Baltimore Orioles and Miami Marlins.

Two squads searching for a win are set to meet on Tuesday for an interleague clash. The Orioles (15-20) are reeling following their four-game sweep vs. the Yankees. Still, opposing pitchers can’t overlook Baltimore’s loaded lineup. On the other side, the Marlins (16-19) dropped three of four against the Phillies last weekend. Can Miami bounce back this evening?

The Marlins are favorites (-143) over the Orioles, with the over/under set at 8.5 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Tuesday’s showdown between Baltimore and Miami on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Orioles vs. Marlins prediction, preview

In years prior, Chris Bassitt was the exact kind of pitcher you’d want starting after five straight losses. However, the 37-year-old’s days as an All-Star caliber hurler are a thing of the past. This season, he’s on the hook for a 5.46 ERA, 1.86 WHIP and 17 strikeouts through 28.0 innings of work. Control has been a major issue for Bassitt, owner of a dismal 1.21 SO:BB ratio. However, a 6.2-inning, one-run performance last week vs. Houston suggests the veteran can still twirl the occasional gem. Unfortunately, he’s been much worse on the road (8.03 ERA in three games started) than at home.

Unlike previous seasons, the Marlins aren’t a walk in the park for opposing arms. Miami ranks tenth in baseball with 291 total hits. Granted, a lack of power ( HR) has limited the overall output from this group. Still, an assembly line offense could do damage against Bassitt, a pitcher that’s put plenty of runners on this season. Three different Marlins regulars are hitting above .300: Otto Lopez (.338), Xavier Edwards (.333) and Javier Sonoja (.304). At catcher, Liam Hicks (139 wRC+) looks like a potential All-Star. The Fish have scored just six runs combined over their last three contests.

For the home team, it’ll be Sandy Alcantara taking the hill. Following a nightmarish 2025 campaign, the former Cy Young winner has looked more like his old self this season. Through seven outings, he’s recorded a 3.04 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 31 strikeouts. Even more impressive, he leads all starters with 47.1 innings pitched. Granted, Miami’s ace is still prone to a disappointing performance every now and then. Look no further than his seven-run disaster on April 12th. Regardless, Alcantara has been fairly consistent. In five of his seven appearances, the right-hander has recorded a quality start.

In theory, the Orioles should be at or near the top of most offensive categories this season. An already above-average lineup added slugger Pete Alonso from the Mets this offseason. While the first baseman is starting to heat up, this unit as a whole has underwhelmed. Baltimore is averaging 4.43 runs per game, 14th-best in the league. That mark would be less devastating if the team had assembled a halfway decent pitching staff. However, it’s worth noting that the Birds are only putting up 3.71 runs per game on the road, sixth-worst in baseball.

To make matters worse, several key contributors are currently on the injured list. Jordan Westburg (elbow), Jackson Holliday (hand) and Ryan Mountcastle (foot) are all sidelined for Baltimore. Alcantara is crafty, heavily utilizing his changeup (23%) and slider (15%). Against those two off-speed pitches, the Orioles are batting .216 as a team this season. Since 2025, Sandy owns a solid 3.79 ERA at pitcher-friendly LoanDepot Park.

Orioles vs. Marlins pick, best bet

After getting stifled by an elite Yankees pitching staff, things won’t get much easier for Baltimore. Alcantara is back to his old tricks this season, looking like a two-time All-Star. As for the O’s, it’s difficult to put much faith in Bassitt against a pesky Miami lineup that crowds the base paths. With their workhorse on the mound, the Marlins have the edge in this matchup.

Best Bet: Marlins -1.5 (+149)