The Padres and Cardinals are set to open a series at Petco Park on Thursday night. Sam Connon shares his picks and predictions in regards to San Diego’s center fielder, Jackson Merrill, and his batter props.
The San Diego Padres are hosting the St. Louis Cardinals on Thursday, continuing their series at 10:10 p.m. ET/7:10 p.m. PT. Jackson Merrill will once again start in center field for the Padres at Petco Park, making his 28th straight start dating back to April 5. Looking at the odds, lines and Merrill’s batter props on DraftKings Sportsbook, here is a breakdown of how the All-Star could perform at the plate on Thursday.
DraftKings Sportsbook currently has Jackson Merrill’s hits line set at 0.5 for Thursday’s contest against the Cardinals. His total bases and hits + runs + RBIs over/under are both set at 1.5, while his runs over/under is 0.5.
Merrill is batting .235 with a .680 OPS so far this season. Through 35 games, Merrill has 32 hits, four home runs, eight doubles, 18 RBIs, 22 runs, 35 strikeouts, 11 walks, seven stolen bases and 52 stolen bases with a 0.7 WAR.
Since breaking out as a rookie in 2024, Merrill’s production has started to tail off. He was an All-Star and Silver Slugger that year, finishing second in NL Rookie of the Year voting after batting .292 with an .826 OPS, 24 home runs, 31 doubles, 90 RBIs, 77 runs, 16 stolen bases and a 4.5 WAR. Then, in 2025, Merrill hit .264 with a .774 OPS, 16 home runs, 25 doubles, 67 RBIs, 59 runs, one stolen base and a 2.7 WAR. He missed 47 games with an ankle sprain, concussion and hamstring strain.
Based on FanGraphs‘ Steamer model, Merrill is projected to rack up 19 home runs, 64 RBIs, 65 runs, 38 walks, 10 stolen bases and 2.1 fWAR in 118 games over the rest of the season. That model has his rest-of-season batting average at .260, with his projected OPS sitting at .760.
Merrill is riding a five-game hitting streak since the calendar flipped to May. Over that stretch, the 23-year-old is batting .429 with an 1.121 OPS, notching nine hits, two doubles, one homer, three RBIs, two stolen bases, one walk and 14 total bases across five games. On a per-game basis, that’s good for 1.8 hits and 2.8 total bases a night. He is also batting .268 with a .747 OPS at home compared to his .200 batting average and .606 OPS on the road.
Another notable trend to keep an eye on is the fact that Merrill has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight games against St. Louis. He has had a few shots at Cardinals lefty Matthew Liberatore in that sample, too. In the head-to-head matchup, Merrill is 3-for-6 with two strikeouts, an RBI and three total bases. Merrill has 17 hits, four walks, three stolen bases and 29 total bases in 14 career games versus St. Louis.
I like Merrill to stay hot and stay dangerous against the Cardinals. He is a key part of a Padres lineup that has scored 15 runs over its last two games after posting 13 in its previous five. San Diego needs Merrill to come through again, and I think his recent numbers support the argument that he can and will again.
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