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Western Conference rivals are on a collision course this evening. Thursday’s Game 6 pits the fourth-seeded Nuggets against the fifth-seeded Timberwolves. Denver bounced back on Monday, earning a commanding 125-113 win. Now, the pressure is on Minnesota to earn a home win without franchise cornerstone Anthony Edwards. Who is poised to surpass, or fall short, of their totals tonight in this pivotal showdown?
The Nuggets are favored by 6.5 points (-110) over the Timberwolves, with the over/under set at 225.5 points. Here are the two best prop bet picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for Thursday’s Denver vs. Minnesota matchup.
Acquired this offseason from Brooklyn, Cameron Johnson has had his moments with the Nuggets. Still, as a clear supporting option on offense, the wing often goes stretches without picking up a bucket. Through 54 games during the regular season, he averaged 12.2 points, 3.8 rebounds and 2.4 assists. Despite efficient 48/43/84 shooting splits, the veteran is one of Denver’s more inconsistent players. On any given night, he’s equally capable of going off or going silent. This postseason, he’s posted 11.6 points through five games. On Monday, he went eight-of-13 from the field (61.5% FG) en route to 18 points.
Game 5 performance aside, scoring in this matchup is no walk in the park. After all, the Timberwolves wield one of the NBA’s elite perimeter defenses. Minnesota is holding its opponents to 12.0 three-pointers made per game, second-lowest in the association. During five of Johnson’s previous eight meetings with the T-Wolves, postseason included, he’s failed to reach 11+ points. In that time, he’s shot 40% from the field and 23% from three-point range. Add it all up, and Denver’s sharpshooter is likelier than not to fall short of this total.
Anthony Edwards (knee) won’t be suiting up this evening. As a result, even more pressure than usual is on Julius Randle. To be fair, this isn’t an unusual spot for the veteran. When Ant-Man dealt with health issues last season, he guided Minnesota to a Western Conference Finals appearance. In fact, Randle delivered a 27-point, nine-rebound, six-assist masterpiece during Game 5. Despite that stellar stat line, the Wolves fell short of a series-clinching victory. This postseason, the power forward is putting up 19.4 points, 8.0 rebounds and 4.0 assists per game.
Perhaps Randle’s most underrated skill is his rebounding ability. Despite playing alongside seven-footer Rudy Gobert, Julius usually makes his presence felt in this category. That’s especially true in this Northwest Division matchup. The three-time All-Star has snagged at least eight boards in four of his last six outings against the Nuggets. In addition, Denver ranks 14th out of 16 teams this postseason with a 46.9% rebounding percentage. In what should be a physical, hard-fought affair, expect Minnesota’s best active player to make a strong effort on the glass tonight.
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