NHL picks today: Our prediction and pick for Game 5 of the second round between the Sabres and Canadiens in the NHL Playoffs.
The Sabres vs. Canadiens series is tied 2-2, with Buffalo hosting Montreal on Thursday night in Game 5 of the second round of the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs, with first puck drop set for 7:00 p.m. ET. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Buffalo is a -122 home favorite on the Moneyline, and the game’s total is set at O/U 5.5 goals.
Below, I’ll provide a Sabres vs. Canadiens Game 5 prediction and pick.
The Sabres have been outplayed for the majority of this second-round series, but they secured the win in Game 4 to tie the series at two apiece before heading back to Buffalo for tonight’s Game 5 tilt. Despite being out-shot 31 to 22 in Game 4, Buffalo still came out on top, thanks to back-to-back power play goals by Tage Thompson and Zach Benson. The recent power play success is a positive sign for this Sabres team, considering it went 1-for-46 dating back to April 2 and now 5-for-16 in the second round. The 5v5 production still favors Buffalo, as well, as the club performed better during the regular season and ranks higher than Montreal in both 5v5 xGoals per 60 and 5v5 goals per 60 this postseason.
The club made a goaltending change from Alex Lyon to Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, and he played well in his first start since Game 2 of the first round. Luukkonen stopped 29-of-31 shots in Game 4, and he is expected to start again tonight in Game 5. Lyon has the edge in playoff experience, but he let up nine goals in Games 2 and 3, and UPL’s athleticism and quickness simply fare better against the fast-paced Canadiens offensive attack. Whether or not his lack of playoff experience plays a factor remains the biggest question, but if he can look comfortable in front of perhaps the rowdiest fanbase in the NHL, chances are he’ll be okay moving forward.
The Canadiens dominated Games 2 and 3, and the series was starting to look quite lopsided. However, Sabres HC Lindy Ruff’s line changes prior to Game 4 proved successful in neutralizing Montreal’s fast-paced offense and providing some offensive spark for Buffalo. The Habs scored 11 combined goals in Games 2 and 3, but their 5v5 production has looked much less effective since their first-round series against the Lightning. Montreal is simply outperforming multiple metrics this postseason, allowing fewer goals than expected and scoring more goals than expected. It’s good that the club has converted 4-of-20 power play opportunities this series after going 5-of-29 in the first round. However, the club cannot depend on special teams, especially when the Sabres were among the best penalty-killing teams in the league.
Perhaps the fatigue is beginning to catch up to Jakub Dobes, who sports a 2.50 GAA and .895 SV% this series after posting a 2.10 GAA and .923 SV% in the first round. Buffalo has the depth to create high-quality chances on all four forward lines, and it doesn’t help that Montreal has taken the second-most penalties this postseason. These teams especially hate each other, and the refs have been calling penalties often. But Dobes certainly has the ability to stand on his head any given night, ranking third among postseason goaltenders in goals saved above expected.
Buffalo’s recent line shuffling gave the team a much-needed offensive spark in Game 4, and Montreal will want to come out of the gates swinging. The total has gone over in three of four games thus far.
Doan leads all players with six points in four games this series, and the Benson-Norris-Doan line has been the Sabres’ most efficient line this postseason, with the exception of possibly the Krebs-Thompson-Tuch line.
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