On Friday night, the Kansas City Royals look to snap a four-game skid with a fresh start as a new series begins. This one will take place in St. Louis, Missouri as the Cardinals play host for the next three days of action. This is a get-right spot for the visitors, but the home side has been the better team this year and now has the chance to potentially push for the top of the division if they can pad the win column against a struggling opponent.

Here’s a betting prediction and pick for Friday’s Royals vs. Cardinals matchup courtesy of MLB odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Royals vs. Cardinals prediction, preview

Kansas City Royals

For a brief moment, it appeared the Royals had found their form and were heading in the right direction. However, they’re still yet to get back to the .500 mark since April 6 when they were 5-5. After dropping four consecutive games to the Tigers and White Sox, they’re now 19-25 and last among the AL Central. The offense doesn’t have terrible numbers by any means with a .708 OPS and .240/.319/.389 slash line, but the bats produce only 4.11 runs per game. That’s also despite a respectable .149 ISO and 44 homers, though the latter mark is on the lower end of average. The Royals’ BB/K ratio of 0.43 is also perfectly fine, falling almost exactly in the middle in BB% (9.5%) and K% (21.8%). The issues for this roster instead revolve almost entirely around the pitching staff, which has a 4.43 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. Kansas City’s arms have struggled with command in particular, giving up a BB% of 11.5% that’s fourth highest in baseball. Despite a K% of 22.5%, the K-BB% sits 20th at 11.0%, so you can see where the problems arise from when coupled with a HR/9 mark that comes in on the poor end at 1.14 as well.

The Royals send 34-year-old RHP Michael Wacha to the bump. He’s been excellent across eighth starts with a 4-2 record, a 2.63 ERA and an 0.99 WHIP to his name. Though he’s struck out only 42 hitters in 51.1 IP and is potentially benefitting from some good luck, he’s currently outperforming some of the advanced numbers and has given up just two earned runs on six hits in his two starts this month.

St. Louis Cardinals

Despite how low expectations were for St. Louis prior to the season, this team has been shockingly competitive. While just 5-5 over the last 10 outings, the Cardinals are 25-18 overall and just 2.5 games shy of the NL Central lead. The lineup is ninth in run creation with 4.63 runs per game, doing so on a .711 OPS that sits 12th in the Majors. The Cards’ slash line of .240/.321/.390 is certainly solid (and quite similar to the Royals’), and they have a .150 ISO with 49 long balls on the campaign. St. Louis also has an 0.42 BB/K ratio with a 9.1%/.21.5% split, slightly below-average performance in terms of approach. Meanwhile, the pitching staff has an ERA of 4.29 and WHIP of 1.38, far outperforming an xERA of 5.02 on the year that ranks second-to-last. That provides some belief that regression could loom, and a 9.1% K-BB% sits second-to-last as well behind an MLB-worst K% of just 18.8%.

Veteran RHP Dustin May takes the mound for St. Louis tonight with a 3-4 record across eight starts. He has an ERA of 4.85, a 1.43 WHIP and 32 strikeouts across 42.2 IP. While he limits walks and still has good fastball velocity, he’s in the eighth percentile in hard-hit rate and 13th percentile in xBA.

Royals vs. Cardinals pick, best bet

DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Cardinals as slight -112 Moneyline favorites at home tonight. The Royals come in at -108 odds to win outright. The run total also sits at 8.5 combined runs between these sides.

Best Bet: KC Royals first five innings (-120)

These teams are eerily similar in some aspects of the game. You have two close slash lines as a group and two of the MLB’s worst bullpens as well — Kansas City’s has a 4.64 ERA and 1.45 WHIP while St. Louis’ numbers come in at a 4.70 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. I don’t totally love this pick since the Royals have looked so average lately and are in the midst of a skid while scoring just 3.10 runs per game on the road this year overall, but I also don’t love May’s pitching. I think KC can get the better of him while the Cardinals’ batters could struggle with Wacha, so I like getting the Royals in the first five innings today. All bets are off after that though, and I wouldn’t feel shocked in the slightest if the Redbirds win in the late stages.