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Picks, Best Bets for Netflix MVP MMA: Rousey vs. Carano
Ryan Wohl · 2026-05-16 · via DraftKings Network

Ryan Wohl breaks down his best bets for Saturday’s Netflix MVP MMA card headlined by Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano.

Saturday night in Los Angeles, California, Most Valuable Promotions is putting on its first MMA card, which is airing on Netflix. Two pioneers in women’s MMA history, Ronda Rousey and Gina Carano, are facing off in the Main Event of this card. The Main Card for this event begins at 9:00 p.m. ET and is the first MMA event on Netflix.

Check out my best bets for the MVP MMA card headlined by Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano.

Ronda Rousey Round 1 (-110)

After retiring from MMA in 2016, former UFC Women’s Bantamweight Champion Ronda Rousey is making her return. Her opponent, Carano, is coming off an even longer layoff, as she last fought in 2009, two years before Rousey began her MMA career. 

Rousey lost her previous two fights, with her last win coming against Bethe Correia at UFC 190 in August 2015. Carano has a record of 7-1, and last won an MMA fight in October 2008 against Kelly Kobold. During her career, Carano spent time in EliteXC and Strikeforce.

On DraftKings Sportsbook, Rousey is the favorite in this contest at -625 with Carano being a +455 underdog. In this contest, Carano is two inches taller (5’8″ vs. 5’6″) and has a slight edge in standing reach (66.5″ vs. 66″). Although neither fighter has fought in quite some time, Rousey is still the younger fighter who has fought more recently. Rousey fought tougher competition during her career and had a more complete career than Carano. I’m taking Rousey to win this fight in the first round since 11 of her 12 victories have come in the opening round. 

Francis Ngannou Round 1 (-145)

Former UFC Heavyweight Champion, Francis Ngannou, is back after a 19-month hiatus. Ngannou left the UFC in 2022. He went on to fight two of the greatest boxers in the world, Tyson Fury and Anthony Joshua. He returned to MMA in October 2024 and beat Renan Ferreira by first-round TKO in the PFL.

Although Ngannou hasn’t been actively competing in MMA, he never lost his Heavyweight title and remains one of the most dangerous fighters in the world. He is facing Phillipe Lins, who last fought in the UFC from 2020 to 2024. Lins has won his previous four MMA fights but hasn’t fought in over two years. Lins most recently competed at Light Heavyweight with his last fight at Heavyweight in June 2020.

As expected, Ngannou is a massive favorite at -1350 while Lins is +800 on DraftKings Sportsbook. In this fight, Ngannou weighed in at 257 pounds while Lins was 220.6. 17 of Ngannou’s 18 wins have come by knockout or submission, with 12 of them occurring in the first round. Ngannou has won seven consecutive MMA fights, with five of them coming in the first round. With that said, I’m taking Ngannou to win in Round 1 at -145. Because of his size advantage, while being one of the most powerful strikers, Ngannou should be able to defeat Lins with ease.

Mike Perry To Win By KO/TKO/DQ (+185)

Another big fight on this card is Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry, a five-round Welterweight bout. Diaz is 21-13 with 17 finishes in his MMA career. The last time Diaz competed in MMA was at UFC 279, where he beat Tony Ferguson in September 2022. Since leaving the UFC, Diaz has had two boxing fights, but hasn’t competed since July 2024. Perry has become a star outside the UFC, totaling a 6-0 record in BKFC. This is Perry’s first MMA bout since April 2021, when he fought Daniel Rodriguez. 

On DraftKings Sportsbook, Perry is a -205 favorite while Diaz is a +170 underdog. This fight is -130 to not go the distance and +100 to last 25 minutes. The over/under is set at 4.5 rounds with the under at -125, and the over is -105.

Even though Perry hasn’t had an MMA fight in a while, he has been more active in combat sports than Diaz has been. If this fight is strictly a striking matchup, it heavily favors Perry. In his MMA career, Perry has 11 wins by knockout. If Perry enters this fight as aggressively as he has been in BKFC, a finish should be doable against Diaz.