Tonight, the Montreal Canadiens have the opportunity to punch their ticket to the Eastern Conference Final. With a 3-2 series lead, they’re just one game away from making it to the stage for the first time since 2021. Standing in their way, however, are the Buffalo Sabres, who are surely desperate to keep their season alive in a hostile Bell Centre this evening.

Here’s a Sabres vs. Canadiens Game 6 prediction and pick for Saturday’s NHL Playoffs action on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Sabres vs. Canadiens Game 6 prediction, preview

The move to Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen in net paid off for Buffalo in Game 4 as he went 29-for-31 on saves en route to a 3-2 victory. The thought that the team had reenergized itself with the goalie swap didn’t live long though, as he followed it up with a blunder of a performance by going 18-for-23 with five goals allowed in two periods of Game 5. The Sabres dropped that matchup 6-3 and turned back to Alex Lyon down the stretch. Now, head coach Lindy Ruff is yet to name a starter for Game 6, leaving a significant question mark on the card with just a few hours to go before puck drop.

Here’s how the numbers shake out in the series so far. The Canadiens have found the edge at even strength with 15 goals to the Sabres’ eight, playing great defense while receiving a little bit of luck in that Buffalo has underperformed a 12.15 xGF mark. Montreal also maintains a slight advantage in terms of shot attempts at even strength, though the split of high-danger chances sees the team’s lead sit at just 55-54. However, the Habs have capitalized on such opportunities with 11 high-danger goals for at even strength to only four for their opponent on near-identical volume. The stats in 5v4 power plays also portray similar trends — the Canadiens lead in goals (six to five), xGF (5.28 to 4.13), high-danger chances (15 to 11) and high-danger goals (four to one).

Those marks say a lot about how this series has gone. After Buffalo took Game 1 with four goals on just 16 shots, this Montreal defense has tightened up considerably. Jakub Dobes continues to perform admirably as a rookie in the net for the Habs as well, providing stability the Sabres just don’t have at the moment. With the Canadiens’ first line of Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield and Juraj Slafkovsky finally hitting their stride with seven goals in the series after being held in check during the first round, the offense is clicking in a way that’s truly tough to limit. Does Buffalo even have a chance in front of a raucous crowd tonight?

Sabres vs. Canadiens Game 6 pick, best bet

DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Canadiens as -180 home favorites to win on the Moneyline tonight, while the Sabres come in with +150 odds on the road. The game total sits at 6.5 combined goals.

Betting splits show 63% of straight bets on Montreal to win, 55% of wagers on the Habs to cover the -1.5 puck line, and 56% on the total’s under.

The two picks I like tonight are for the Canadiens to win in regulation and the under on 6.5 goals. The numbers speak for themselves in terms of which team has the upper hand in the series when you look at the respective offenses, and the goalie situation brings another clear gap between the pair. The Habs have taken grasp of the momentum and have their opponent on the ropes; it’s just up to them to rise to the occasion and finish the job. That’s a much easier proposition at home than it is on the road, so I like them to stay hot and advance to the Eastern Conference Final with a regulation win to cash a 60 min line bet.

As for the under, the total has gone that direction in six of these teams’ nine total meetings this season as well as in three of the five games in this series. The hit rate feels reliable there, so in lieu of a winner pick, that’s the way to go.

Best bet: MTL Canadiens 60 min line (-110)