Alex Hunter breaks down his preview, prediction and pick for Tuesday’s Play-In Tournament NBA matchup between the Hornets and the Heat.
The Hornets are hosting the Heat for a win-or-go home Play-In Tournament matchup Tuesday night. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Charlotte is favored by 5.5 points and this game carries a total of 227.5 points.
Let’s dive into my preview and pick for this matchup.
The Play-In Tournament kicks off Tuesday with the Hornets and Heat facing off in Charlotte. The winner of this matchup will face the loser of Wednesday’s matchup between the Magic and 76ers in Philadelphia to decide who will be the No. 8 seed in the Eastern Conference for the playoffs. Meanwhile, the loser of the Hornets vs. Heat will be eliminated from playoff contention.
As Southeast division clubs, the Hornets and Heat faced each other four times in the regular season and Miami won the season series 3-1. Two of these wins for the Heat were by at least 18 points, but Charlotte took the most recent matchup by 30 points on March 16. Then again, Bam Adebayo missed this final matchup for the Heat while the Hornets were at full strength, so Miami was at a clear disadvantage without its best player.
Adebayo is healthy for this Play-In matchup, however, and Charlotte hasn’t had much of answer for the big man this season. Adebayo is averaging 25.0 points and 9.0 rebounds per game in his two matchups with the Hornets. While the Heat dominated the season series vs. the Hornets, Charlotte has been the much better team in the second half of the season. Since the All-Star break, the Hornets are 18-9 and rank second in net rating while the Heat are 14-12 and rank 16th in net rating.
Charlotte is led by a promising young core of LaMelo Ball, Brandon Miller and Kon Knueppel. Their lack of experience, though, has been the team’s main issue this season, because when the Hornets aren’t blowing teams out, they struggle to finish the job in close games. In clutch games this season – which is when the score is within five points in the final five minutes – Charlotte is just 10-18, whereas the Heat are 17-16.
None of the Hornets’ starting five has ever played in a playoff game, while Adebayo has competed in two NBA Finals, Tyler Herro has competed in one and Norman Powell won an NBA title with the Raptors in 2019. The Heat also have a big edge when it comes to Play-In experience, as for three straight years, this Erik Spoelstra-coached Miami group has advanced to the playoffs from the Play-In Tournament. Meanwhile, the Hornets have never competed in a Play-In game in the team’s history.
Will the Heat’s experience lead them to another Play-In victory or will this ascending Hornets team prove they are ready to handle big moments? We will find out Tuesday night in Charlotte in what should be an exciting Play-In matchup.
The Hornets have been the better team as of late and they have home-court advantage for this matchup, but their lack of experience is concerning and the Heat have had the Hornets’ number this season.
Miami has struggled on the road with a 17-24 record, but the Heat should be a confident group for this matchup and I like backing Miami for the upset here.
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