Zach Thompson details his best player prop bets for Monday’s NBA playoff matchup between the Nuggets and the Timberwolves.
The Minnesota Timberwolves have won three straight games in their first-round series against the Denver Nuggets to take a 3-1 lead in the first round. The Timberwolves can finish the series upset with a road win in Game 5 on Monday night at Ball Arena, where the action tips off at 10:30 p.m. ET. The Nuggets will be looking to force a Game 6, which would be Thursday back in Minnesota. Let’s get ready for Game 5 with a few of the top player prop bets to consider from this Timberwolves-Nuggets matchup.
The Nuggets are heavy 11.5-point home favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, with the game total at O/U 223.5 points. In the futures market, the Timberwolves have moved to -150 favorites to win the series, but the Nuggets are still only +125, despite their 3-1 hole.
The main reason the Nuggets still have such a good chance to come back and win the series is the significant injuries from Game 4. Minnesota lost Donte DiVincenzo (Achilles) for the rest of the season, while Anthony Edwards (knee) suffered a bone bruise and hyperextension in his left knee and is expected to miss multiple weeks. On the Nuggets’ side of the injury report, Aaron Gordon (calf) is questionable after playing through the issues as much as he could but looking limited in Game 4.
Murray started the series hot with two strong showings at home in Denver, with exactly 30 points and seven assists for 37 points plus assists in both Game 1 and Game 2. He shot the ball much better in Game 2, making six three-pointers to help the Nuggets stay in the game despite a monster effort from Anthony Edwards.
He struggled in the Nuggets’ down Game 3, with only 16 points and four assists, but he bounced back with 30 points and five assists in 42 minutes in Game 4. He couldn’t do enough to get his team the win, but he went over this prop line for the third time in the four games in this series.
Back at home and facing elimination, he’s likely to carry a large workload again in Game 5. With Gordon at less than 100% and some streaky shooting around him, Murray has to continue to step up. He has at least 30 points in seven of his last 13 contests, and he has been producing solid assists in every game except Game 3 as well. This isn’t a low prop, but the Nuggets need him to pour it on if they want to keep their season alive.
Without DiVincenzo and Edwards, Dosunmu will be one of the keys to the Timberwolves’ success going forward. He has been outstanding since joining the team in a trade at the deadline from the Bulls, and he has stepped up whenever a bigger role has been available.
In Game 2, he had 25 points, nine assists and three rebounds for 37 PRA (points, rebounds and assists). In Game 3, he played even more minutes and poured in 43 points, four rebounds and one assist for 48 PRA. It was a career-high scoring mark for the fifth-year guard, and the second-most points off the bench in playoff history.
While he isn’t likely to go off for that many points again, that game demonstrates his scoring upside and the advantage he has in this matchup against Denver. He had at least 30 PRA in four straight games in the middle of March without Edwards, and he’ll have to carry a significant workload again in Game 5.
This is a high mark compared to his modest average of 22.2 PRA per game during the regular season, but he has proven to be a multi-category threat in the past and showed off his upside in his last two contests in this series.
While Aaron Gordon’s uncertainty clouds the Nuggets’ rotation, Tim Hardaway Jr. is one player whose role is large enough to take the over for his PRA whether Gordon plays or takes the game off.
Hardaway has gone over this prop line in each of the last three games in this series with 19, 16 and 17 PRA after posting 11 PRA in Game 1. While he’s known mostly for his scoring, he has chipped in five rebounds in each of the last two games and added a couple of assists in Game 4.
He has played at least 27 minutes in each of the last three games, and with that much time on the floor, he always has the ability to go off for a big scoring game. Even if he doesn’t, though, he has a good shot to get to at least 16 PRA, especially if Gordon is out or at less than 100%.
If you’re building an SGP (Same Game Parlay) for Game 5, adding in the over on Hyland’s assists boosts the odds up to a solid +1100 for the four Timberwolves-Nuggets bets in this post.
Hyland averaged only 2.6 assists per game this season, but that was always with DiVincenzo and mostly with Edwards in the lineup. In 20 minutes in Game 4, Hyland handed out seven assists, and he’ll be one of the key creators along with Dosunmu and Mike Conley. Since the odds are so favorable for Bones in this revenge game against the Nuggets, it’s a great sweetener to boost this SGP to 11:1.
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