Julian Edlow shares his best bets for Game 1 between the 76ers and Knicks.
The 76ers shocked the world and came back from a 3-1 deficit to the Celtics to advance to the second round. It’s a quick turnaround for Philly after its biggest win in recent memory on Saturday night in Boston, while the Knicks have been resting since throttling the Hawks on Thursday.
If any of Philadelphia’s stars are slowed down in Game 1, I’d expect it to be Joel Embiid (who got banged around in Game 7) or Paul George (who played 41 minutes). However, the young and ascending Tyrese Maxey should be fresh and good to go his usual 40-plus minutes. Maxey’s role is guarenteed, playing 40 or more minutes in every game against the Celtics, unless it was a blowout with late benchings.
The matchup against New York has been favorable for Maxey in recent meetings. He’s faced the Knicks six times over the last two seasons, averaging 30.5 points per game and scoring 30 or more in five of the six individual games. I expect Maxey to be aggressive looking to score out of the gates in this series, and we can bet him to go for 25+ at a very reasonable price.
Top Prop Pick: Tyrese Maxey 25+ Points (-117)
While my favorite play in the game is Maxey’s point prop, I do think the Sixers are catching too many points. Let’s address the elephant in the room first — this is not a great spot for Philly. Coming off three straight wins as an underdog and finally getting over the hump against a team that has owned you over the years could lead to a sluggish start in a road game against a well rested team.
However, if we compare the prices in the market over the course of the season, I can’t comprehend why the Knicks are laying so many points. When these teams met at full strength in Philadelphia, the Sixers were home favorites. The two trips that the Sixers made to Madison Square Garden, they were 2.5-point underdogs with Kelly Oubre and Josh Hart both out, and then 6.5-point underdogs without Oubre and Joel Embiid. For what it’s worth, the Sixers actually won both of those games outright.
Now you have both of those starters in, yet are catching even more points? I’ll overlook the spot based on what I feel is a big discount on the 76ers to keep this one close.
NBA Spread Pick: 76ers +7.5 (-112)
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