Zach Thompson analyzes his three favorite home run props from Sunday’s busy 15-game MLB slate.
Major League Baseball has another beautiful Sunday afternoon of baseball on tap, with all 30 teams in action across the afternoon and into the evening, when the Red Sox and Yankees meet on Sunday Night Baseball. As we look at the 15 games on the scoreboard, a few strong places to attack for home run props stand out. Taking a look at all the environments, matchups and odds, my top home run props from Sunday are Bryan Reynolds, Samuel Basallo and Gavin Sheets.
It should be a great day to swing for the fences with these juicy home run props!
| Best MLB home run bets today | Team | Why I like the pick |
|---|---|---|
| Bryan Reynolds | Pirates | Reynolds has five homers in June and gets a great matchup against Brady Singer, who has allowed 17 homers in 15 starts, including 11 to lefties. Reynolds has two homers against him in past meetings as well. |
| Samuel Basallo | Orioles | Basallo has 12 total homers this season, eight at home, 11 against righties, and seven during the day. He gets a great home run matchup against Zack Littell. |
| Gavin Sheets | Padres | Sheets has hit six of his 13 homers in day games and all 13 of them against righties, while Emmet Sheehan has been hit around by lefties all season and struggled during day games. |
As we dig into the box and get ready to swing for the fences, let’s start with a reminder that all home run props are long-shot bets. However, when a player you’ve selected goes yard, it’s an awesome event to celebrate and can also quickly build your bankroll. Even the top power hitters are more likely not to homer than to go yard on any given day, though, so it’s important not to be too aggressive. By looking at the matchups, current form, game environment and history, some players stand out as good options. You can play these props individually or combine them in a parlay or round-robin format to maximize the potential payout.
Let’s dive in for a deeper look at these three plays on Sunday.
The Pirates are trying to avoid being swept at home by the Reds on Sunday afternoon, after a three-run homer from Eugenio Suarez with two outs in the ninth helped the Reds snatch defeat from the jaws of victory on Saturday. The Pirates will look for a bounce-back win as they take on Brady Singer in what should be a good matchup for Reynolds.
Singer has served up 17 homers in his 15 starts, which puts him in the top 10 in the MLB in home runs allowed. On the road, he is 0-4 with a 6.32 ERA and eight homers allowed in eight starts, spanning 37 innings. Lefties have hit 11 of the 17 homers and have a .388 wOBA, .226 ISO and 11.4% barrel rate against him.
Reynolds is a switch-hitter but will face Singer from the left side. He has 11 homers on the season, and five of those have been in his last 17 games. Over those 17 games, Reynolds has a .379 batting average with a .486 wOBA, .318 ISO, a 63.3% hard-hit rate and a 16.3% barrel rate. He is 6-for-16 in the past against Singer with a double, a triple and two homers. With Singer’s struggles to keep the ball in the park this year, Reynolds will be in a good spot to continue his strong month with another blast on Sunday afternoon.
Basallo and the Orioles will face Zack Littell at Nationals Park on Sunday afternoon, and Littell is one of the few pitchers in the MLB who has allowed more homers than Singer. In his 16 games, he has served up 21 homers. Lefties have 16 homers against him this season while hitting .301 with a .344 ISO, 47.6% hard-hit rate and 12.9% barrel rate.
One of the Orioles’ power lefty bats to consider is 21-year-old Samuel Basallo. The rookie catcher has a dozen homers this season and will be on the strong side of all his splits against Littell. Eight of those 12 homers have been at home, 11 have been against righties, and seven have been during the day, even though he has more than 30 fewer at-bats in day games.
He hit two homers against the Angels in the getaway game on Wednesday, and he will look to enjoy the Sunday sunshine this afternoon in Charm City against Littell.
The third home run prop to consider this Sunday is from the West Coast, where the Dodgers finish out their series against the Padres at Petco Park in one of the late afternoon matchups. The forecast is for relatively strong winds out to right field, which should help Sheets in his favorable matchup against Emmet Sheehan.
Sheehan has had a rocky start to the season, going 3-5 with a 5.32 ERA and allowing 14 homers in his 14 starts. In his four day games, he has an 8.80 ERA and has allowed four homers in just 15 1/3 innings. He has served up nine of those homers to lefties like Sheets, who have a .362 wOBA, .268 ISO, 41.8% hard-hit rate and 11.8% barrel rate.
Sheets went yard on Sunday against the Dodgers for his 13th homer of the season.
He has hit all 13 of those dingers off righties, and six of them have been in day games, where he has a .921 OPS compared to a .693 OPS in night games. He has three homers in his last 13 games while hitting .256 with a .361 wOBA. He’s an underrated source of left-handed power for the Padres and is a solid place to grab some Sunday home run props this afternoon.
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