Griffin Wong gives his best bet, pick and prediction for Saturday’s FIFA World Cup match between Ecuador and Curaçao.
Ecuador entered the World Cup with high expectations of making a deep run after finishing second in South American qualifying. Now, La Tricolor are in danger of not advancing out of the group stage after dropping the opening match to Ivory Coast last Sunday. Realistically, they must beat Curaçao today at 8 p.m. ET (7 p.m. ET) in Kansas City to have a chance of going through, as they’d then need all three points against Germany in Matchday 3.
Because of their poor goal difference, the Blue Wave (who lost 7-1 to Die Nationalelf in their opening match) are highly unlikely to advance on three points, even if they beat either Ecuador or the Elephants.
La Tricolor are -1000 favorites to claim all three points at DraftKings Sportsbook, and Curaçao is +2200. A draw is available at +950.
Below, I’ll break down this potential elimination match and provide my favorite bet.
Despite suffering the third-most lopsided World Cup defeat since 2000, the Blue Wave probably emerged from Matchday 1 feeling better than Ecuador did. Just being at this tournament is a success for Curaçao, and on paper, Germany’s defense is pretty strong, so even equalizing was a success. It all came undone right before halftime, as Kai Havertz — a certified big-game player — came through with a penalty that took some of the air out of the Blue Wave’s sails, but the final score surely went ignored on the island. Meanwhile, La Tricolor were favored to beat Ivory Coast, but they failed to get much going in the attack and allowed Ivorian youngster Yan Diomande to look like the world’s next superstar winger. Amad Diallo’s 91st-minute winner felt like it was a long time coming. Now, Ecuador is up against the wall if it wants a chance of advancing to the knockouts for the first time since 2006.
At least in theory, La Tricolor’s strength lies in their defense. Center-back Willian Pacho is integral for back-to-back Champions League winners Paris Saint-Germain, and left-back Piero Hincapié started for 2026 finalists Arsenal. Right-back Alan Franco, who struggled against Diomande, is somewhat of a weak link, but the quartet of Pacho, Hincapié, Brugge’s Joel Ordóñez, and CDM Moisés Caicedo (Chelsea’s best player) is a group of talent unmatched by virtually any other nation. Ecuador had a rough time against the Elephants, giving up 1.52 expected goals and winning both ground and aerial duels at among the lowest rates, but the fact that it racked up among the most tackles, interceptions, and recoveries despite controlling possession is positive. The issue is that La Tricolor’s main man up front is Enner Valencia, who has just five goals in 17 matches for Liga MX side Pachuca and only got off one shot in 76 minutes. Ecuador put just one of its 12 shots on target overall, and while it got unlucky to hit the woodwork three times, only managing 16 touches in the box is disappointing, as is making two errors leading to an Ivory Coast shot and completing only 65.5% of passes into the final third.
Thankfully, La Tricolor should have more opportunities to possess the ball in dangerous positions against Curaçao, which will likely be willing to sit back and defend. The Blue Wave’s three most notable players — brothers Juninho and Leandro Bacuna and youngster Livano Comanencia — are all defensive midfielders, and goalkeeper Eloy Room is among their most experienced, having played in the CONCACAF Gold Cup three times. They controlled just 35% of the possession against Germany, allowing Die Nationalelf to uncork 26 shots, including 20 in the box, worth a tournament-high 4.22 expected goals. Going forward, Curaçao did little to challenge Manuel Neuer, managing just 0.41 expected goals’ worth of chances and putting only two of its eight shots on target. It had the fourth-fewest touches in the box, and though it completed a decent percentage of its passes, it made the third-most errors leading to a shot. The Blue Wave also did not generate a single fast-break opportunity, which typically present underdogs with opportunities to strike back.
I don’t necessarily expect Ecuador to blow Curaçao away, as the only time it scored more than two goals in World Cup qualifying came against 10-man Bolivia, an even weaker team on paper than the Blue Wave. I have some skepticism about Germany’s attack in the deeper stages of the competition, but La Tricolor’s weak front four pales in comparison to even Die Nationalelf’s. Still, while Pacho, Caicedo, and especially Franco didn’t play all that well against Ivory Coast, Curaçao doesn’t have any attackers as dangerous as Diomande, Diallo, and Nicolas Pépé, and I can’t imagine Ecuador conceding. La Tricolor’s high press should challenge the Blue Wave, given that they rely on passing it around the back to build up an eventual attack, and while they might want to boost their goal difference for a potential third-place tiebreaker, a 2-0 win tonight and a one-goal loss to Germany should see them through.
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