Update: Cal Raleigh scratched from the lineup Saturday

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Closing down Saturday’s MLB slate, the Kansas City Royals will take on the Seattle Mariners. This marks the second matchup of the three-game series, after the Royals tallied a 7-6 victory in Game 1.

The Mariners are -143 moneyline favorites for Saturday’s matchup on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Royals are a +119 underdog, with the run total set at O/U 8.

Royals at Mariners prediction, preview

The Royals are off to a 13-19 start to the season, which slots them in fourth place in the AL Central. They enter this matchup riding the momentum of Friday’s win and have won five of their past seven. On the season, Kansas City has gone 13-19 to the run line, and the run total is 14-18 to the over/under.

Seth Lugo is tabbed to start this one. The former All-Star enters with a 2.63 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP, with 31 strikeouts and 33 hits allowed across his 37.2 innings pitched. Lugo is coming off his worst performance of the season as he allowed 14 hits and seven earned runs against the Angels. He had not allowed more than two earned runs in any of his other five starts.

Looking at the production at the plate, the Royals are collectively slashing .241/.322/.393 with a .715 OPS. Bobby Witt Jr. leads the team with 36 hits, along with two home runs and 15 RBIs. Maikel Garcia adds 32 hits of his own along with 11 RBIs, while Vinnie Pasquantino, Salvador Perez, and Carter Jensen have each driven in 13-plus runs already this year.

The Mariners enter with a 16-17 record to start the season, and sit in third place in the AL West. They have gone 6-2 across their past eight games and are playing better baseball in the process. Seattle has gone 12-21 to the run line thus far, and the run total is 16-16-1 to the over/under.

Emerson Hancock will take the ball for the Mariners. The 26-year-old will be making his seventh start of the season, and enters with a 2.86 ERA and a 0.981 WHIP. Hancock has tallied 32 strikeouts and allowed 28 hits across his 34.2 innings pitched. He has not allowed more than three earned runs in a start this season, but has only exited the game without allowing a run once.

Seattle is slashing a collective .233/.323/.386 with a .709 OPS. Randy Arozarena and Julio Rodriguez are tied with a team-high 34 hits and have combined for seven home runs and 28 RBIs. Cal Raleigh got off to a bit of a slow start to the season, but is now up to seven home runs and 18 RBIs. Cole Young has also impressed, while J.P. Crawford and Josh Naylor also play major roles.

Royals at Mariners pick, best bet

Neither of these teams has gotten off to the start they wanted, but I am backing the Mariners in this matchup on the -1.5 run line. Both pitchers have impressed to start the season, but their underlying metrics suggest some upcoming regression. Hancock has stranded a miraculous 95.4% of baserunners to start the season. The Royals do not possess the caliber of lineup to strike fear into him, and expect him to put the Mariners in a position to win.

Seth Lugo looked concerning in his previous start; expect the Mariners to look to exploit this. Seattle has also played much better at home this season. As a team, the Mariners are slashing .247/.338/.429 when playing at home compared to .215/.305/.335 on the road. They are 10-8 at home and 6-9 on the road to start the season.

Seattle has also beat up on inferior opponents, winning 14 of its last 15 home games against teams with losing records. They have also done a nice job starting the game hot, winning the first inning in six of their last seven home games against American League opponents with losing records. This comes against a Royals team that has trailed after five innings in seven of their last eight road games.

The Mariners are a better overall team than they have played this season, and they should capitalize on this matchup as they work to climb the standings. Count on Hancock doing enough on the mound to give the team a chance and for the bats to wake up with the home crowd behind them. Seattle has won 11 of its 16 games by more than 1.5 runs and should add to that total on Saturday.

Best bet: Mariners -1.5 (+149)

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