Zach Thompson analyzes his three favorite home run props from Saturday’s busy 15-game MLB slate.
Major League Baseball has all 30 teams in action this Saturday, with the Red Sox and Yankees starting the day at Fenway Park at 1:00 p.m. ET on ABC. After six afternoon games, nine games are under the lights as teams continue their weekend series. While Coors Field and Sutter Health Park don’t have MLB games this weekend, there are still some environments and matchups that offer some strong home run props to consider. Taking a look at all the environments, matchups and odds, my top home run props from Saturday are Miguel Vargas, Jackson Chourio and Brooks Lee.
It should be a great day to swing for the fences with these juicy home run props!
| Best MLB home run bets today | Team | Why I like the pick |
|---|---|---|
| Miguel Vargas | White Sox | Vargas has two homers in his last three games and is on the strong side of his splits at home against righties like Michael Wacha. The White Sox’s offense has impressed on this homestand, and Vargas is right in the middle of it. |
| Jackson Chourio | Brewers | Chourio has belted eight homers in his last 20 games, hitting .308 with a .406 wOBA and a .319 ISO. Three of his 10 homers this season have been against lefties like David Peterson, and he has a .392 wOBA in the split against them. |
| Brooks Lee | Twins | The switch-hitting Lee is a long shot play against Michael Lorenzen, but he’ll be on the strong side of the splits since he has hit righties well, and Lorenzen has struggled against lefties. Lee has eight homers in his last 24 games, including two of his last three this week. |
As we dig into the box and get ready to swing for the fences, let’s start with a reminder that all home run props are long-shot bets. However, when a player you’ve selected goes yard, it’s an awesome event to celebrate and can also quickly build your bankroll. Even the top power hitters are more likely not to homer than to go yard on any given day, though, so it’s important not to be too aggressive. By looking at the matchups, current form, game environment and history, some players stand out as good options. You can play these props individually or combine them in a parlay or round-robin format to maximize the potential payout.
Let’s dive in for a deeper look at these three plays on Saturday.
The White Sox went off for 22 runs in their series opener against the Royals, and the AL Central leaders will look to keep the offense rolling on Saturday against Michael Wacha. Even with Munetaka Murakami out, the offense has had plenty of power, and Vargas has been a huge part of the lineup, typically hitting third. He already has a career-high 18 homers on the year, with a .366 wOBA, a .239 ISO, a 45.2% hard-hit rate and a 14.2% barrel rate.
Ten of his 18 homers have come at home at Rate Field and 10 have come against righties like Wacha. He homered as part of Friday’s monster offensive performance and has three homers in his last 15 games.
Wacha was very effective in his last start, holding the Rays to just one run, but he has allowed 10 homers in 16 games this season, including six in his nine road starts. Righties like Vargas have a .312 wOBA and .183 ISO in the splits against him this year. After the offense went off on Friday, Vargas and the rest of the lineup will look to continue to crush the Royals this Saturday afternoon.
Chourio brings great value as he takes on the Cubs at American Family Field this Saturday night. He’ll be facing new Cubs addition David Peterson, who just came over from the Mets earlier this week. Peterson has struggled with a 6.09 ERA and 1.65 WHIP while allowing six homers in 68 innings this season. Righties have hit .303 with three of those homers against him, setting up Chourio to continue his hot hitting.
The 22-year-old has been limited to 45 games this season due to injury, but he is up to 10 homers on the season, including eight in his last 20 games. Over those 20 games, Chourio is hitting .308 with a .406 wOBA and a .319 ISO. He has a 44.4% hard-hit rate over that span with at least one hard-hit ball in six of his last seven. He’s hitting .333 with three homers and a .392 wOBA against lefties on the season, so he should be in a good spot against Peterson on Saturday night.
Let’s finish the day with a long shot from the Twins game against the Rockies. Even though they’re playing this weekend at Target Field instead of Coors Field, Friday’s game had plenty of offense with late twists and turns like a typical Coors game. The Twins got a 9-8 win in 10 innings after blowing a seven-run lead. Lee homered to help build that lead for his 14th homer of the season.
The switch-hitting Lee comes at an extreme value in this matchup, even though he’s facing Michael Lorenzen, who has been a great matchup to attack this season both at home and on the road. Lorenzen has allowed 13 homers in his 17 games this season, including seven in his nine games away from Coors Field. Lefties have done most of the damage against him, with nine of those homers, a .472 wOBA, a .301 ISO and a 48.5% hard-hit rate.
Lee will face him from the left side on Saturday, and he has hit 11 of his 14 homers this year from that side of the plate while hitting .260 with a .235 ISO and .347 wOBA on that side of his splits. Since May 31, he has eight homers in exactly 100 plate appearances, producing a .342 wOBA with a 31.7% hard-hit rate. Since his batted ball metrics are a little lower, he comes in with long odds, but he has proven he can take advantage of mistakes, especially from right-handed pitchers like Lorenzen. Even though he’s a longshot, his stats indicate he can bring great value in this matchup.
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