If you take a quick look at the American League standings, you’ll notice that there are currently only three teams above .500. That’s right. Just three. It’s the last day of April, too. We’re no longer dealing with teeny tiny sample sizes.

One of the reasons for this phenomenon is that the Tigers are 15-16 after blowing a ninth inning lead against the Braves on Wednesday night. Apparently Kenley Jansen throwing a fastball right down the middle to Matt Olson was poor pitch selection. Who knew?

Can Atlanta complete the sweep this afternoon? Let’s preview this matinee interleague matchup and make a couple picks on the DraftKings Sportsbook.

Tigers vs. Braves prediction, preview

Shockingly, this will already be Framber Valdez’s fifth road start of the season. The free agent acquisition has been nearly untouchable in his two outings in Detroit, pitching to a 0.69 ERA, but he’s not been nearly as successful away from home. The left-hander owns a 5.06 ERA and a 4.39 xFIP within the split, and walks have been the largest issue. Valdez sports an inflated 10.2% walk rate on the road, and he’s directly on the heels of a start in Cincinnati where he walked more opponent (5) than he struck out (4). Overall, Valdez still looks decent. He’s got a 3.41 ERA and his 53.2% ground ball rate ranks inside the top 10 of qualified pitchers. However, attached to a 13th percentile whiff rate (18.7%) and a 17th percentile strikeout rate (16.2%), Valdez has been closer to league-average than elite. It’ll be interesting to see how the 32-year-old progresses throughout 2026.

Heck, it’ll be interesting to see how the southpaw progresses throughout the afternoon. The Braves are one of the toughest matchups a pitcher can draw at the moment, as the club leads MLB in batting average (.273), while also sitting second in the league in ISO (.182) and wOBA (.350). It all comes down to quality of contact — something that Atlanta has achieved without compromising an NL-low 19.4% strikeout rate. The Braves enter Thursday’s action ranking inside the top five of baseball in barrel rate (10.5%), expected slugging percentage (.462) and expected wOBA on batted ball events (.393). I’m trying not to be hyperbolic, but this is sort of the ideal offense.

Ironically, a man that hasn’t needed much run support in 2026 is Bryce Elder. The right-hander has tossed 37.0 innings this season and he’s maintained a pristine 1.95 ERA and a 2.86 xERA. This, after posting a 5.59 ERA from 2024 to 2025 — the highest mark in MLB among starters with at least 200 innings thrown. What a turnaround. So… What’s different? You could point to a .238 BABIP, but Elder’s earned that “luck” as much as you can, limiting opponents to an elite 2.9% barrel rate. Edler’s also completely changed his pitch mix. In 2025, the RHP’s sinker was his primary offering, despite the fact that opponents hit 11 home runs and managed a .361 wOBA when they saw it. In 2026, the sinker’s usage has been cut in half, dropping from 42.1% to 20.9%. I think the adjustment is working.

Tigers vs. Braves pick, best bet

Best Bet: Framber Valdez Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-104)

Valdez has gone under this prop in three of his last four starts and he owns just a 17th percentile strikeout rate (16.2%) for the season. Meanwhile, the Braves boast the National League’s lowest strikeout rate as a team (19.4%).