This is an interesting moment for these two AL East rivals to meet for the first time in 2026.

There’s no denying that both the Red Sox and the Blue Jays have been among the bigger disappointments so far this season, yet each club has its own reasons for optimism coming into Monday’s series opener. Toronto has won five of its last seven contests and it seems like some of the notable names on the team’s IL are set to return soon; while Boston won a series against the Orioles after firing almost its entire coaching staff. I’m not sure Alex Cora was what was holding the Red Sox back, but that’s certainly a guaranteed way to shake things up.

Who will continue their climb back to .500 this evening at the Rogers Centre? Let’s preview this divisional tilt and make a couple picks on the DraftKings Sportsbook.

Red Sox vs. Blue Jays prediction, preview

I think you have to start this preview with a mention of Dylan Cease. The right-hander has been the ideal version of himself through five starts with the Blue Jays, pitching to a 2.10 ERA and a 1.45 FIP over 25.2 innings of work. Cease is still struggling with command, as a 12.6% walk rate would be his highest since all the way back in 2020, but the hue of that red flag is dulled by a league-high 39.6% strikeout rate and a career-high 54.9% ground ball rate. It’s not like Toronto has completely changed the pitcher we’ve seen across the past half-decade — Cease is still primarily using his fourseam fastball and his slider — yet where he was throwing those two offerings 82.9% of the time in 2025, that usage has dipped to just 66.3% in 2026. Heck, Cease has already thrown more changeups this year (47) than all of last (37), and opponents have yet to register a hit off the pitch. His tertiary stuff is pretty good, and his ability to keep opponents slightly more off-balance is likely why he’s yet to surrender a home run or a barrel.

Ironically, Cease will be opposed by another big-money free agent signing on Monday, as Ranger Suarez will toe the rubber for the Red Sox. It’s been an odd beginning to 2026 for Suarez. The highs have been quite high, as Suarez had back-to-back outings of at least six scoreless innings in mid-April. However, the lows have also been quite low, as Suarez hasn’t pitched out of the fifth in any of his other three appearances with Boston. On the whole, Suarez comes into Monday with a 5.09 xERA, which hinges on a 17.8% strikeout rate that would be a career-low mark. The southpaw’s 10.0% opponent barrel rate and 42.5% opponent hard hit rate would also be the worst numbers of Suarez’s professional life. It’s not exactly what you want to see in the first year of a $130 million contract.

The Red Sox are relying pretty heavily on their pitching, too. It’s about the only way the team has been able to win games in 2026. Even after a 17-run outburst on Saturday, Boston enters play on Monday in possession of AL-worst marks in ISO (.123), wOBA (.304) and wRC+ (84). It’s not like Toronto’s been much better with the bats, but at least the Jays can point to injuries to George Springer (toe), Addison Barger (ankle) and Alejandro Kirk (thumb). Roman Anthony and Jarren Duran have combined for only two home runs this season. Duran, by himself, is slashing .189/.255/.278 with a 45 wRC+ in his 98 plate appearances. It’s been a real slog on offense.

Red Sox vs. Blue Jays pick, best bet

Best Bet: First 5 – Under 3.5 (+110)

If you want to just roll with the game total, that’s fine, I just have some availability concerns with the back end of Toronto’s bullpen. So, let’s restrict things to the first five innings. These teams both rank in the bottom five of the league in expected wOBA. They rank 25th and dead-last in home runs. There’s just not a lot of pop in either lineup. I’ll side with the track records of Cease and Suarez.

Strong Lean: Dylan Cease 8+ Strikeouts (-103)

Cease’s 39.6% strikeout rate is the highest mark of any player with at least 25 innings thrown in 2026. Meanwhile, the Red Sox are tied with the Reds for the league’s highest called strike + swinging strike rate (29.1%).