Garion Thorne details his top home run props for tonight’s slate, including bets for Juan Soto and Jordan Walker.
Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on home run props during baseball games. So much so, we’ve got a whole article dedicated to just that.
Here are my top two home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for Thursday’s condensed slate: Juan Soto and Jordan Walker.
Let’s break them down.
| Best MLB Home Run Bets Today | Odds | Why I Like the Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Juan Soto | +253 | Soto’s seen a lot of Aaron Nola in the pair’s careers, and he’s managed three homers and a .952 OPS. Meanwhile, since the beginning of last season, Nola’s surrendering 2.03 home runs per nine to opposing LHBs. |
| Jordan Walker | +349 | Among players with at least 50 plate appearances against southpaws, Walker’s .647 expected wOBA is the seventh-highest mark in the sport. His 100th percentile bat speed (79.1) should give Noah Cameron some issues on Thursday. |
In-depth analysis below.
Juan Soto has seen Aaron Nola a lot. Like, almost more than any other active hitter in baseball. That’s what happens when you’re a long time member of the NL East, playing for both the Nationals and the Mets. So, when I say that Soto has three career home runs off Nola, you’ll have to understand that that’s across almost 60 plate appearances. When I say that Soto possesses a career .952 OPS off Nola, you’ll also have to remember that the former All-Star owns a .948 OPS at the MLB level — that’s against everybody. This is all pretty standard. Still, the Nola that Soto will see today is not like the Nola he was facing back in his rookie campaign. The RHP has lost some zip on his fastball, and as a result, Nola’s surrendering 1.69 opponent long balls per nine since the beginning of 2025. Versus LHBs specifically? That figure jumps to 2.03 home runs per nine. Woof.
It’s been fun watching the breakout season finally happen for Jordan Walker, who comes into Thursday’s tilt with Noah Cameron and the Royals with 18 home runs and a 144 wRC+. Walker is also in possession of a 99th percentile average exit velocity (94.7), a 95th percentile hard hit rate (52.7%) and, of course, 100th percentile bat speed (79.1). When people talk about a “toolsy” prospect — this is the archetype that they are referring to. As you might expect for a right-handed power bat, Walker’s done a lot of damage against LHPs in 2026. In fact, among players with at least 50 plate appearances within the split, Walker’s .647 expected wOBA versus southpaws is the seventh-highest mark in the sport. The aforementioned Cameron is a perfectly decent MLB starter, yet as evidenced by a 28th percentile opponent barrel rate (9.4%), he can be hit hard and far.
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