Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and best bet for today’s baseball game between the Pittsburgh Pirates and the St. Louis Cardinals.
The Pirates (15-15) and Cardinals (16-14) close this series Wednesday afternoon at PNC Park, a 12:35 p.m. ET rubber match that has already tilted toward volatility. Tuesday’s 11-7 Cardinals win produced 18 total runs, 12 hits for St. Louis and three separate Pittsburgh home runs, with both sides creating offense through traffic and extra-base damage rather than clean, isolated innings. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the Pittsburgh Pirates and the St. Louis Cardinals.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Andre Pallante and Bubba Chandler frame the handicap, but Pallante is the clearest target. He enters with a 4.26 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 22 hits, 14 walks, 20 strikeouts andthree3 HR allowed in 25.1 innings, backed by a 17.5% strikeout rate, 12.3% walk rate, 4.98 FIP and 4.91 xFIP. The contact profile adds more stress: 89.1 mph average exit velocity, 43.6% hard-hit rate, 10.3% barrel rate and .356 xwOBA allowed. Pittsburgh’s offense has the right shape to punish that, pairing a top-10 OBP vs right-handed pitching with a 45.2% hard-hit rate over its last eight games. Chandler’s 4.88 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and 16 walks in 24 innings keep St. Louis dangerous, but the cleaner offensive mismatch is Pittsburgh against Pallante’s walk-and-contact profile.
The player layer is strong enough to carry a team total without leaning on one bat. O’Hearn is the stabilizer at .323/.410/.515 with 14 walks and a .925 OPS, and his righty-split production gives Pittsburgh a reliable baserunner in the middle of the order. Cruz brings the leverage swing with 9 HR, 25 RBI, 10 steals and a .538 SLG, which matters against Pallante’s 10.3% barrel rate allowed. Brandon Lowe adds another left-handed damage lane with 7 HR, 19 RBI and a .515 SLG, while Bryan Reynolds has turned 23 walks into a .386 OBP even without peak slugging. Nick Gonzales gives the order contact at .330 with 15 RBI, and Griffin’s 2 HR, 13 RBI and Tuesday homer keep the bottom third from becoming an escape hatch. That is enough OBP, contact and lift to get to five if Pallante puts men on.
Pallante’s expected numbers say he may not be as bad as the surface line, and Pittsburgh’s offense has had uneven stretches. But even the expected profile still points to stress—subpar strikeout rate, elevated walk rate, hard contact and barrel leakage. The Pirates do not need Pallante to crater for seven runs. They need him to create traffic, allow one or two damaging swings, and hand the ball to a vulnerable relief group with the total still live.
That bullpen piece matters in a full-game team total. St. Louis’ bullpen owns a 5.26 ERA, 1.451 WHIP, six blown saves and a 62.5% save rate, with relievers entering with runners on base 33 times and working 39 high-leverage spots. That turns the ninth inning into part of the bet instead of a nuisance. Pittsburgh’s own bullpen volatility is exactly why the moneyline is thinner; Chandler’s command issues and St. Louis’ extra-base burst make the Cardinals live enough to avoid tying this to the final result. The better play is to isolate the lineup facing Pallante and a Cardinals relief corps that has not consistently missed bats or closed innings cleanly.
The market is offering Pirates team total over 4.5 at +110, and that is, again, the cleanest number on the board, if you ask me. A first-five bet narrows the window for no real reason, the moneyline drags in Pittsburgh’s late-inning risk, and the full-game over depends on a Cardinals offense that has been less stable against right-handed pitching. This bet captures the most direct path: Pirates OBP and hard contact against Pallante’s 1.42 WHIP, 12.3% walk rate, 43.6% hard-hit rate and 10.3% barrel rate, then one more scoring lane against a bullpen carrying a 5.26 ERA. Playable to -115.
Projected score: Pirates 6, Cardinals 5
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